In our childhood years, we wished that winter would come as soon as possible and that flaky snow would fall. Schools were closed, but snowballs were played in the garden of the school and a snowman was made. This was the case in the big cities. Snow, winter, was white, white for us…
But now it is no longer so…
Winter has come to be defined as black winter. Moreover, it is winter everywhere, not only in the countryside, where the roads are constantly closed, where the season is always under severe natural conditions, but also in the high areas; black…
Although this is the case meteorologically, what we really mean is that the color of winter in economic terms is black.
I have mentioned in my previous articles (cf. www.dunya.com )as well as underline in a few of my articles… Moreover, I tried to draw attention to this issue at least six months ago, not now.
“Winter will be tough this year.”
Yes, it’s going to be a tough winter this year.
Of course, in terms of economy…
But this; naturally, our life will be unusually cold.
Cold; It is not only a climatic narrative, but also a definition that can carry different meanings in its derivative. Coldness in relationships, coldness in colors etc. as…
The first signs came in 2022, when the pandemic continued as if it had gained continuity, as the difficulties in the global economies became more and more severe. In global economies, regardless of the macro dimensions of the economy, the increase in inflation with sudden increases has focused all the attention on the economy as much as on the pandemic.
The highest rate of inflation in the last 41 years in the USA, similarly inflation increases in EU member countries, high inflation in the UK in the post-Brexit period, increased inflation in Germany, which is the locomotive economy of the EU, and others together, EU economies they came under rising inflationary pressure…
During this period, while mutually differing opinions about whether inflation could be permanent or temporary, the war between Russia and Ukraine, which was said to be short but became almost permanent, broke out… If I am not mistaken in the dates, the war is approaching its first half. In a war, warring countries are no longer victims. Those who are actually in the war, countries in certain pacts, countries neighboring the battlefield, troops of other countries…
It was going to be a hard winter when we say economic troubles, rising inflation not slowing down, the effects of war, protests, economic, political, military embargoes, international tensions, stagnation, hyperinflation, stagflation, which are often talked about or will be put in place, and it is already happening…
It was exactly the closure of the European taps of Russian natural gas, which was feared but expected, and it happened. Although there were explanations for maintenance reasons at first, the prediction that this was a move against sanctions has now become clear and definite. On the other hand, Europe is still determined to maintain the continuity of its measures. He even talks about increasing sanctions against Russia (Ursula von der Leyen), such as a ceiling price on natural gas prices…
Meanwhile, crude, which has hovered above $100 since February oil barrel prices have also decreased to the level of $ 85, Russia continues to sell relatively cheap oil to some countries, including Turkey, especially India.
As an interim result, increasing prices and accompanying natural gas shipments with reduced/restricted supply will have a negative impact on industry, trade and, of course, life in a negative way. In our approach to the subject, we energy What will be seen when we collect the inputs in a single item, under the name of energy in the sense of the sector; the economies will have a very, very difficult time, and the winter will be extremely difficult.
So far, I have only talked about high inflation and stagnation in its context, more current account deficit, industrial usage capacity, PMI values, CDS premiums, increases in CBRT emission volume, volatility in exchange rates and depreciation of TL, price increases that started as cost inflation turn into demand inflation ( I especially recommend you to read the article of our dear teacher Dr. Mahfi Eğilmez on this subject.) foreign currency There are many economic problems such as the fact that their arrivals were below expectations, exports exceeded imports, the gap between them was widening, and many economic problems were effective on our economy…
I do not want to list pessimistic or even more pessimistic predictions one after the other. Except for the pandemic and war factors, I experienced these economic difficulties in Jordan, Lebanon, Portugal, where I was for a short time, and in Greece, where I went very often. Believe me, life is never easy…
Unable to prevent rising prices, shortages in products and services, especially food, after a certain point, transportation problems caused by the oil crisis, lack of communication, unemployment, energy restrictions, energy problems based on increasingly long hours, blackouts…
“Well, what needs to be done?” There is no longer such a question. Because the issue, what needs to be done is no longer on a level that can be done individually and that will yield results. Individuals, households cannot fight inflation alone. It has no individual power for this, nor can it have a macro-level effect.
In a humanitarian sense, some aid institutions and organizations, maybe municipalities help the consumption centers that we call households somewhere, in a sense, initiatives other than the measures to be taken by the state, apart from the aids within the scope of charity and goodwill, only serve to prolong the problem temporarily, but these are solutions or solutions. cannot be cured.
A cure or treatment can be created in a certain time, but not in a short time, by experts who have the qualifications to meet the requirements of the discipline of economics, within the boundaries of democracy, by working jointly with the law, within the framework of economic policies.
It is not scientifically possible to get results with unscientific, irrational and unscrupulous practices, stubbornly resisting wrongdoing. Because, as Einstein said, it is not possible to do the same things and expect a different result.
Topkapi University Rector, esteemed Prof. Dr. As our teacher Emre Alkin stated in one of his articles, we never try to knock anyone down in these articles. In line with the requirements of the discipline of economics, we share our correct, academic, economics knowledge.
Also, as it is known, economics is not a science, it is essentially a discipline. Of course, the economics teaching has rules, definite mathematical formulas (Econometrics) and dialect, doctrines. However, some economic evaluations may undergo partial changes over time, depending on the situation and conditions in the economies under evaluation. For this reason, we sometimes use some fixations when making comparisons with the Latin ceteris paribus expression by saying when all other conditions remain the same.
To summarize; The winter season of 2022-2023 will perhaps be the hardest winter of recent times, and people in various countries, especially economy and beyond, they will endure serious difficulties of pandemic proportions.
I sometimes liken these notifications to a large plane (ie 747-800) trying to maneuver on its final approach to the runway. Passing becomes inevitable, persistence in landing becomes the cause of accident-slaughter. It is essential to be calm and determined, to do justice to the trainings received, and to apply the rules of the user manual correctly and on time.