Writer of Dünya newspaper, Alaattin Aktaş: This is not “liraization”, but “dollarization”! caption
✔ Invite those who prefer to keep TL with the fear that they will go to foreign currency, even though they have suffered a real loss for years, get them used to the return of foreign currency, make the 650 billion that would normally stay in TL indexed to foreign currency, then in the name of “liraization”. ” also! On the contrary, this practice is not “liraization” but “dollarization”…
We’re in big trouble. Currency protected deposit, touted as an invention that the world envy. Aside from the funds transferred from the budget and the Central Bank to those who open this account, the real disaster will be experienced when the implementation is over. We’ve written this over and over. In detail, on August 10 and 11…
Currency-protected deposits, an application applied to prevent an increase in foreign currency exchange rate, and other steps taken together with the name “liraization” were deemed appropriate for this practice. However, this practice is actually the opposite. Although this practice seems to encourage holding TL, it has also accustomed those who have saved in TL in the past to the return of foreign currency. “Liraization” actually became “dollarization”…
Central Bank President Şahap Kavcıoğlu also talks about the importance of liraization and the distance covered in his article on the bank’s blog. Good thing, we can’t find an answer to the following question:
“What will happen when this app ends?”
If it goes to 1.3 trillion foreign currency…
According to BRSA data, the total of the foreign exchange-protected deposit account is 1 trillion 308 billion liras as of September 2.
Let us remind you that some details are no longer given, the data is blacked out.
We do not know the maturity of the KKM account; but the estimation is not difficult, especially real people mostly prefer three-month terms.
At the beginning we knew how many of these accounts were opened directly in TL, how many were created through DTH conversion, then this data became undisclosed.
But the estimations are that the amount in TL and foreign currency in the total account is roughly half.
In the March-July period, 60.6 billion was paid as a foreign exchange difference from the budget, there is also a tax of 10.2 billion liras forgone; Thus, the burden of KKM on the budget became 70.8 billion liras in five months. (World August 16, 2022)
But this burden is light compared to the destruction that will occur when the application is finished.
That destruction will be revealed where the money in the account will go when the application ends.
1.3 trillion foreign currency, where is the currency?
I stated that the account amount on September 2 was 1.3 trillion liras. Let’s assume that when the application is finished, the amount is still at this level whenever it is finished.
Half of this account, that is, 650 billion, has already come from foreign currency. These individuals and organizations, who have been saving foreign currency for years, will naturally receive foreign currency when the practice ends and they get this money.
On the other hand, while saving TL for years, those who switched to a currency protected account also enjoyed the foreign currency. These account holders no longer look at the interest given by the bank when depositing the money. Attention is entirely on the return of foreign currency, because no matter how much the interest is, the return is obtained as much as the increase in foreign currency. Almost innocently, those who stood in TL were pushed into foreign currency. Now, while they normally save TL, those who switch to KKM and get used to this attractive return of foreign currency will turn to TL deposits with 650 billion, which is well below inflation, or will they turn to foreign currency? Isn’t it an obvious question…
Therefore, even if the currency-protected deposit application ends today and the amount is 1.3 trillion liras, it means that Turkey will suddenly face such a demand for foreign currency.
Calculate how many billion dollars is 1.3 trillion liras in foreign currency!
Lira, is it?
Invite the citizen who stays in TL despite making a loss, to the KKM to “don’t go to the foreign currency exchange”, encourage him by saying, “Connect your money to foreign currency”, make approximately 650 billion liras indexed to foreign currency, that is, in a sense, this is the foreign currency account, 36 billion at today’s exchange rate. raise dollars, then call it “lira”!
Even the conversion of those who open a KKM account through foreign currency will cause problems. In a sense, the foreign currency collected in installments will turn the market upside down when it suddenly turns into demand.
Either they will convert from TL to foreign currency…
So what will happen when 1.3 trillion liras say “I want foreign currency”? Will it turn out that we don’t “get good lira”?
Or is it that we cannot persuade the citizen to “get lira”?
Without thinking about these, we will write articles on blogs saying, “We have become one lira, one lira so don’t ask”!
BANKS FOUND THE WAY TO DOWNLOAD THE LOAD TO THE TREASURY!
For some reason, a ceiling was imposed on the interest rate to be applied by banks in the exchange-protected deposit application.
Banks can apply a maximum “policy interest + 3 points” interest to KKM. The policy rate was 14 percent when KKM started, so the highest interest rate could be 17 percent. Later, when the policy rate was reduced to 13 percent, the ceiling rate was also reduced to 16 percent.
However, most banks did not apply 17 percent interest before, nor do they apply 16 percent now. Because these rates are ceiling and banks can keep the interest lower.
Citizens almost never look at the bank’s interest when opening a currency-protected deposit account or renewing their account. Because the exchange rate increase is not below the interest rate, so this rate should be important. The exchange rate increase is always higher and the difference between the interest and the exchange rate increase is paid by the Treasury anyway.
It happens to the Treasury, and therefore to those who do not open a KKM account.