It was no longer possible to sustain the current situation in Syria. It seems that the AKP also realized that the end of the road was reached. It seems that he is looking for a way out. Definitely stable or not? Unknown…
There are two main reasons for the search for solutions: Developments in internal and external dynamics.
We all know the first. The economic crisis and the increasing anti-refugee sentiment. The general acceptance of the opinion that the national identity is in danger and the demographic structure is almost tried to be transformed by imported people…
It is not a coincidence that the Victory Party, which has transformed public awareness into a political program, has gained a place in the polls. These developments prompted everyone to reposition. There is this phenomenon on one side of the search in the People’s Alliance.
The second is due to developments in the field of foreign policy: Global power relations are differentiating. Because Erdogan-Putin The dimensions of the partnership have gone beyond being regional. Especially the Russia-Ukraine war provided a special role for Turkey. The government also took steps in line with this role, and Turkey gained a more important position for Russia. The reverse is also true because the US approach to Turkey remains problematic. This situation is reflected in the Mediterranean, the Aegean and the Black Sea. However, it makes itself felt most in Syria. Because he never lost his support for the PYD. Turkey-Russia partnership has become so valuable and important that, in a sense, Assad opposition became insignificant, regressed to a secondary level. Already, the current policy to overthrow Assad publicly provides an environment that feeds the PYD. The US is also taking advantage of this crack. Don’t come to a late consciousness!
It is as if we are facing a situation that has been decided in Sochi. If so, the nature of the relationship to be established with the Syrian state in the coming days may result. Decisions to meet with Assad or to raise the level of diplomatic relations are indicative.
In the background of these steps, the effort to create an election-oriented perception cannot be ignored. AKP’s election anxiety is above any value. The number of Syrians and Middle Easterners made Turkish citizens has reached a frightening level and will continue to increase. On the other hand, if the first steps are taken today, with an optimistic probability, the solution of this problem will require at least a few years of effort. Therefore, it is not possible to be completely sure about any step.
It is difficult to predict which dynamic is dominant in the new choice…
If there is to be a solution, we need to seek an answer to the following question today: “What would the exit roadmap be?”
The first step is to make peace with the Syrian state.
The purpose of the roadmap should be to establish Syria’s territorial integrity, political unity and the sovereignty of its state.
For this, first of all, it is necessary to have a strong political will. A realistic end-state description is inevitable. What kind of Syria could it be?
Probably a structure that is closely tied to the center but takes into account the existing mental and geographical fragmentation and its reflection in the new constitution…
While keeping away from meddling in the internal affairs of the country in principle, the correct construction of the confrontational nature of compulsory involvement…
Determining what sanctions will be applied to whom, with whom… Providing assurances for asylum seekers to return to their countries…
Establishing a timetable of timing… Conditioning the withdrawal of foreign troops…
Clarifying the legal aspect that will stabilize Syria…
Scenarios for difficulties and solutions for them need to be determined.
The biggest difficulty that appears is due to the US presence. His leaving the region is only possible with his isolation. Turkey’s policy change changes the balance of power in the region. The equation changes. A different search for the PYD imposes itself.
The second difficulty stems from the situation in Idlib. Cutting off UN aid to the region or making it through Syria is an important tool. A strong will is the greatest force that will disperse the terrorist organization in this region.
Exit strategy is an issue that will require a lot of work…