Once a month, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announces the monthly, quarterly, semi-annual and annual real rates of return on investment instruments.
What does real return mean?
It is the real return you have after deducting the part that melts with inflation of the investment instrument in which you invest your money.
Let’s take a look at the data released this month.
The highest monthly real return was realized in the BIST 100 index, with a ratio of 16.31 percent, when reduced with the consumer price index (CPI). In other words, when TÜİK subtracted the 1.46 percent inflation, stock market investors increased their money by 18 percent in just one month. Those who invested in Government Domestic Debt Securities and gold also earned returns in Turkish Lira above inflation.
Investing in the US Dollar, on the other hand, achieved a monthly return slightly above inflation. Those who kept their money in Euro and TL deposits were defeated by inflation in August. What did Minister Nureddin Nebati say in a statement he made last month?
Borsa İstanbul is the best investment tool.
They are doing their best to ensure this. On the one hand, they continue to sell foreign exchange through the back door so that the depreciation of the TL does not increase, on the other hand, they continue to cut interest rates. As such, there is very little room left for the saver to go. Iris Cibre told you on this page yesterday what kind of troubles there were. Here’s the link for those who haven’t read it I’m leaving.
Now let’s take a look at the last six months of work.
According to the six-month evaluation, the BIST 100 index; When it is reduced with the CPI, it is the investment instrument that provides the highest real return to its investors at a rate of 15.02 percent; In the same period, when the deposit interest (gross) is reduced by the CPI, it became the investment instrument that lost the most to its investors by 14.62 percent. In this calculation, of course, consumer inflation, which is announced by TUIK and citizens are not very convinced, is used. So the situation is actually even worse.
Why did you give all this data bro, I can hear you saying, let those who have money think.
Of course you are right!
But someone’s gain is someone else’s loss in the economy.
How many of the stock market investors who have achieved record returns in the last month do you think are small savers?
Yes, we have citizens who have started to make more than 2 million new transactions in recent years. But how many of them have the knowledge to consciously trade in the market? How many are active?
When you ask this question to those who know the market well, you hear that those who are active do not have this small savings.
In other words, the winners are those who have a large amount of capital and know these things well.
Can you blame them?
Is it said that you are foxing the fox, friends?
It is the fault of the one who entrusted the rabbit to the real fox!
If the rulers of the country show a single direction with the policies they apply to the savers and even openly say this, they will throw the small saver to the table of the wolves of that place. Let alone their savings, they make millions of people who have difficulty in making a living pay the price with inflation.
Then, when they are proud of their “record” growth figures, they call those who say that the share of labor falls and the rich always get the share of growth, a “mandated economist”!
Of course, of course…
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While this mandate economists has entered the discourse, it is useful to clarify another situation.
What does mandate mean?
It means wanting to be under someone’s control.
The government declares those economists as mandator because the economists it calls mandate believe it is right to return to a normal monetary policy and thus think that capital will come to Turkey from the west.
This thesis is of course debatable.
But those who declare economists with this idea as mandates are also chasing Arab and Russian capital!
On the one hand, those who say ‘do it right, capital will come, if it doesn’t come, at least we’ll pick up inflation a bit’, on the other hand, those who are chasing Russian and Arab capital to win elections, let alone tidy up the situation!
Now let me ask you, who is the more mandate economist?