Erdogan We can classify the foreign policy of the government in Syria in three stages:
1st phase (2011 – 2016): To build the Brotherhood regime in Syria Assadperiod with the goal of overthrowing.
2nd phase (2016 – 2022): on Syrian territory “FSA autonomous region” period of building.
3rd stage: “Reconciling Assad and FSA” targeted normalization (or dialogue) period.
Phase 1: The goal of overthrowing Assad
Erdoganin Egypt MorsiWith the coming to power, he aimed for an Ikhwan geography that he would lead: Turkey, Syria, Palestine, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia…
When the provocations started in Syria, the AKP first AssadHe forwarded a list of seven Ikhwans he wanted his government to assemble. When rejected “The project to overthrow Assad” started: Turkey’s borders were opened to political Islamist organizations from many countries.
The owner of the project was the USA, but the main contractor was Turkey, the subcontractors were Saudi Arabia and Qatar. AKP’s foreign policy architect Davutoglu, “Under the global order of the USA, we will establish a sub-regional order” he was saying.
“Performing the Conquest Prayer in the Umayyad Mosque” with slogan “Assadproject to overthrow In this process, the AKP established the Syrian National Council against the Damascus parliament and government, and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) against the Syrian army. AKP in this process AssadHe negotiated with the PYD/YPG to build a front against ; Salih MuslimHe met in Ankara. The Kurdish initiative in domestic politics was also a necessity of this goal.
Erdogan power in Syria in the future. “send more troops” for the President of the USA Obamaforced him. However Obama‘s plan was different: Isis “using”to provide legitimacy to the PYD/YPG and just as before BarzaniHe was planning to build an autonomous area in the north of Syria with the PYD, as he did in northern Iraq with the PYD. AKP is at this intermediate stage with the USA. “Do not act with YPG against ISIS, act with me” made the deals.
Phase 2: FSA autonomous zone target
A new process began with Russia’s landing in Syria in 2015 and the downing of a Russian warplane on 24 November 2015.
ErdoganThere were now two problems in front of : 1) Russia supported AssadThe goal of overthrowing was now very difficult to implement. 2) The USA wanted to establish a PYD state and there was a great reaction against it both in the opposition and within the state.
Erdoganmade a move to solve these two problems by combining them in the same pot. As a requirement of this new situation, its target in Syria is now based in Aleppo. “FSA autonomous region” was to establish. AKP aims to achieve this goal in its relations with the USA. “FSA region versus PYD region” He was going to make a bargain card.
Meanwhile, the FSA’s sponsor list changed due to the Ikhwan-based confrontation between Saudi Arabia and the UAE and Qatar, and Turkey’s continued Ikhwanism with Qatar. The FSA, which was declared the Kuvayi Milliye, was transformed into the Syrian National Army (SMO) in 2017.
ErdoganThis new line of ‘s started a period of contradictory relations: Turkey, on the one hand, Assad’s supporters acted with Russia and Iran, but opposed normalization with Syria. because AssadIt continued to support the FSA against the FSA and wanted to declare a zone of influence when the conditions were met. For this, he did a series of works contrary to the sovereignty law, from appointing district governors to the regions under his control (9 percent) to opening faculties affiliated to a Turkish university.
Moscow, on the other hand, took this process slowly so that Ankara would not act with Washington. Turning Idlib into a knot and not being able to reach a political solution in Syria was now a big problem.
Stage 3: Normalization/Dialogue
Erdoganis preparing for the most critical election of its government and has two big problems in front of it: the economic crisis and the refugee problem.
Erdogan wants to solve the refugee problem by combining it with the target of “FSA autonomous region”. one in Syria “safe zone” It wants to settle 2.5 million asylum seekers there before the election. For this, he wants to carry out a military operation to unite the circles under his control. However, both the USA and Syria, as well as Russia and Iran are against it.
Putin also ErdoganIn response to this political need of , it applies the following tactic: “The way to fight terrorism Assad’It is through meeting with him.” Putin Thus, by paving the way for Ankara-Damascus normalization, it aims both to reach a political solution in Syria during the process of dealing with the Ukraine crisis and to expel the USA from Syrian territory.
The third stage has emerged because of the overlap of these needs. Therefore, the process on the AKP front “Normalization Attempt” in its place “Searching for Dialogue” is named. For Erdogan yet “FSA autonomous region” He has not given up on his aim of proclaiming.
However Ankara will definitely normalize with Damascus; With or without Erdogan!