Whereas the upward motion within the greenback fee continued, outstanding predictions got here from Cash Markets Specialist İslam Memiş.
Mentioning that the greenback is gaining worth all around the world, Islam Memiş mentioned, “Mr. Erdogan pronounced the month of February” within the statements he made on the weekend and this weekday.
Islam Memiş’s vital greenback remark is as follows:
The rise of the greenback index (dxy) to the extent of 114.42 after 20 years supported the appreciation means of the greenback all around the world.
After all, the vital issue right here is the financial coverage of the FED.
Persevering with to boost rates of interest within the struggle towards inflation, the Fed could elevate rates of interest extra dovously (50-25 foundation factors) within the final two conferences of the yr.
Nonetheless, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and FED members don’t neglect the sector.
Explanations ŞAHİN.
For instance; Chicago Fed President Charles Evans introduced that US coverage makers will elevate rates of interest to the height in March, then sit and wait, and escape the recession on this interval.
Different members will proceed their occasional conversations.
The story is similar, INFLATION WILL FALL, EVERYTHING WILL BE GOOD!
So, the Fed stays on the scene.
Within the coming months, we’ll see extra clearly how the continuity of those insurance policies and the way a lot they’re helpful for their very own financial system and the way flawed they’re.
The reality is: The Fed has agreements with most central banks.
These are organized issues.
Let’s come to the efficiency of TL in Turkey.
The Greenback/TL fee noticed 18.51 liras on the screens.
18.66 lira in free markets.
With the rise within the greenback / TL trade fee, President Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan‘s statements go parallel.
Mr. Erdogan pronounced the month “February” in his statements on the weekend and this weekday.
“After February,” he says.
What does it imply for February to level to inflation, enhance in revenue, aid, and the normalization means of TL?
I believe the rationale behind it pointing to February is an intervention plan to the greenback with the normalization of the FED!
Simply because the FED factors to March for the height rate of interest, the financial system administration could make its strikes after February.
Let’s take a look at what might be anticipated within the first quarter of 2023 by way of inside and exterior components;
Exterior components:
– FED’s hawkish fee hikes could also be changed by dovish steps and explanations.
Different main currencies, inventory markets, commodities, and cryptocurrencies that have been floundering might rebound to their former ranges.
With the final quarter of this yr, the greenback index (dxy) could decline to the extent of 104-105.
– The Russia-Ukraine battle could proceed to extend in depth till the primary quarter of the yr, after which peace talks could start.
Inside components:
– The expectation of the CBRT and the financial system administration’s common greenback/TL fee for 2023 is 20-21 liras.
In different phrases, the expectation of 20 lira has now been accepted and we will say that it might not be a shock.
Nonetheless, the federal government that’s within the election course of is not going to need to go to the elections with excessive trade charges.
As inflation and trade charges gave precedence to development, development forecasts have been revised upwards.
Now let’s take a look at the order;
– CBRT’s rate of interest cuts
– Anticipated decline in inflation
– Persevering with to rise in development figures
Within the first quarter of the yr, decreasing the remaining fee.
What’s the message to the voter?
“We lowered the rates of interest, we additionally lowered the inflation, we grew alongside it, we additionally lowered the trade fee”
Nicely, when the rate of interest fell, inflation and trade fee would not fall? Did you see the way it was?
(I hope so)
So, How will or not it’s?
If issues go nicely and immediately’s situations stay legitimate, there isn’t any drawback.
Circumstances change, if issues do not go nicely, this time Plan B comes into play.
I believe plan B is CASH.
Through the choice course of, the recognized faucets are opened to the tip.
We have now been following the motivation, help and structuring statements collectively for the final two months.
However they might be hiding the large bombs near the election.
Conclusion:
A stable slap comes from the 20-21 lira vary to the greenback/TL, and it is not that tough.
Will the troublesome one be PERMANENT?
Is it the date?
Based on them, the primary quarter of 2023.
To me, it is the day the 20-21 lira vary was examined.
So, this job might not be till 2023.
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