The method step by step presents an image of inventive shame, even if we mentioned we known as it a “strategic pit” for Syrian politics. He has the Syrian Nationwide Military (SMO), which Turkey educated and geared up with nationwide battle gadgets, crushed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which it added to the record of terrorist organizations. An incredible pattern! I can guess that a lot of my readers say, “Allow them to worsen”. Though the developments since October 11 are reported as “HTS is attempting to wipe out the Turkish-backed teams within the Olive Department and Euphrates Protect areas, as in Idlib,” the image is a little more sophisticated.
Mainly, there’s something to be mentioned: All of them benefited from Erdogan’s patronage. Turkey’s doorways had been open to all. The Turkish Armed Forces turned an iron curtain to forestall the Syrian military from advancing. They had been protected by this protect. Every of them is a part of the “Eliminating Syria” venture.
Let’s get to what is going on on and the nuances between them!
HTS, which staged the “Islamic emirate recreation” by monopolizing Idlib by eliminating its different companions, rivals and opponents, took motion to grab Afrin on October 11. Afrin, which was taken from the Folks’s Safety Items (YPG) and handed over to looting SMO teams in 2018 with the Olive Department Operation. After all, on this transfer, HTS took teams apart from SMO as a backup. Who’re they? Hamza Division, Süleyman Shah Division (Abu Amşa) and Ahrar’uş Şam. The third is an Al Qaeda product distinctive to the material of the area. In accordance with some, these three organizations are Trojan horses for HTS. HTS’s goal is the main drive of the Third Corps inside the SMO, Cephet’üş Şamiye (Damascus Entrance) and Ceyş’ul Islam (Islamic Military), which was exiled from the countryside of Damascus. It may also be talked about about organizations which might be within the center or whose resistance is short-lived.
In different phrases, the ram is HTS, however the SMO components are within the battle towards the SMO components.
As of October 13, whereas Afrin was conquered by HTS from the south to the centre, Suleyman Shah to the west and Hamza to the northwest, Cephet’üş Şamiye clung to Azez in Kfar Cennet. Except for Afrin, a number of places additionally modified fingers within the north-northwest countryside of Al Bab and Aleppo.
Can they dive into Afrin like this with out the connivance or consent of Turkey? It’s sure that Turkey didn’t forestall HTS. There are markings that can facilitate extraction. Feylak’ush Damascus, linked to Turkey and the highly-controlled Muslim Brotherhood, didn’t resist and even gave approach to HTS at Afrin’s southern gateway, Deir Balut (Cinderes). Should you ask, they may say, “In order to not shed brotherly blood”. It is a profit! Ahrar’uş Şarkiyye and Ceyş’uş Şarkiyye, who got here from the east of Syria, additionally put up a present of resistance in Cinderes. HTS allergy is excessive in SMO attributable to what they’ve accomplished within the countryside of Idlib and Hama. As a matter of reality, there are demonstrations towards the enlargement of the management space of HTS. The Syrian Islamic Council, which was established in Istanbul in 2014 by Syrian figures who see themselves as “average”, additionally known as for normal resistance towards HTS. They don’t have the capability to set off a mobilization.
Because of this, Turkey remained ‘silent’ within the face of those dramatic developments. However he was not detached. For one factor, though intergroup clashes are usually not missing within the Olive Department and Euphrates Protect areas, it’s illogical {that a} tank-supported operation, which suggests the change of fingers of a area, could be unaware or unapproved by Turkey. Turkey’s position or place is doubtful: Though there isn’t any details about a coordinated operation, there’s tacit approval or connivance.
What might they’ve accomplished with it?
First, let’s speak concerning the background to be reminded of:
The one chief who was brazenly sad with the addition of the Nusra Entrance, the chief of HTS, to the record of terrorist organizations was Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Nonetheless, as per the UN decision, Turkey had so as to add HTS to the record of terrorist organizations. In accordance with Erdogan, there was neither the time nor the necessity to name Nusra a terrorist when he supposed to alter the regime. He did not care that Nusra was ISIS’s unique institution in Syria. Nonetheless, the truth that Nusra/HTS was listed as a terrorist group didn’t change Erdogan’s angle in direction of this group. It was the main drive within the Military of Conquest, which captured Idlib in 2015. It could have been good if the Free Syrian Military had not swept its parts out of Idlib, however afterward, it confirmed that it will be a superb companion by retaining quiet concerning the deployment of the Turkish military to the area inside the framework of the Astana Accords. The TAF additionally protected HTS with its position as a protect on the periphery of Idlib. Extra was given in return. Turkish troopers died for this. The coordination of MIT with HTS will not be unhealthy both. What is feasible with out contact between them whereas essentially the most vital operations are on this area! HTS added an financial dimension to this partnership by placing the Turkish lira into circulation within the area. Additionally they management the Bab el Heva border crossing by way of the Salvation Authorities. In different phrases, the border gate works for HTS. Additionally they profit from worldwide help. The place on the planet can the al-Qaeda line see this goodness? Even the Taliban could not give that a lot.
However after some time, abdomen ache seems: Erdogan pulls a pesrev to hug Bashar al-Assad. With the encouragement of boss Vladimir Putin! In the event that they intend to make peace with Damascus, two methods could be adopted concerning these organizations:
The primary is to place an finish to the conflicts between organizations and create a powerful interlocutor. A union of forces to hold the Islamist various to Damascus! For this, a extra homogeneous-organized construction like HTS can align the others. The booty tradition is within the yeast of all of them, however the structural facet and ideological codes of HTS are stronger in comparison with the others. This will increase the administration capability. Affordable solutions akin to moderating HTS and ultimately eradicating it from the record of terrorist organizations are additionally in play. Finish your allegiance to Al-Qaeda, which has common networks, restrict your battle to Syria, “My solely goal is Assad”, allow us to deal with you as an inexpensive group, perhaps at some point you’ll be faraway from the black record. We’re speaking concerning the thoughts that made HTS chief Abu Mohammed al Colani put on a go well with. It is not going to occur, however the Islamist file of NATO companions, particularly the British, is clear. Their involvement with the armed Brotherhood in Syria dates again to the Seventies. Properly, let’s not get additional.
Second means; If Erdogan desires to make peace with Assad, he must pull the plug on these organizations. The shortest approach to throw armed teams below the truck is to spotlight those with registered terrorist id, create an untenable image and go away the remaining to the Syrian state.
My private opinion; Erdogan might select to determine a joint command and civilian administration between HTS and SMO to strengthen his hand. He might wish to put this highly effective construction on the bargaining desk towards Assad. It is an Erdogan-like method. If he has any curiosity, he is not going to quit on his sin.
Now after we return to the sector, we see what HTS is attempting to do with its circumstances. The place they wish to attain doesn’t contradict the primary means I discussed.
On October 13, HTS sat down with the commanders of the Third Corps, below the auspices of the Turkish authorities, on the Bab el Heva border crossing. In abstract, he put ahead the next circumstances:
– All navy teams unite below one command. (MIT’s guys have been engaged on this for years-FT)
– The existence of those that don’t settle for the joint command can’t be allowed.
– Navy teams ought to withdraw from the civilian administration. (Civil administration means lease area-FT.)
– Take away the checkpoints established within the settlement facilities. (These are additionally the event of extortion and fundraising-FT)
– Let the armed teams settle within the intersections with the Assad forces and the SDF.
– Let the interior safety be left to the Common Safety Administration of the Salvation Authorities.
– Anybody who’s ideologically linked to Ceysh’ul Islam must be despatched to the Peace Spring Operation space, specifically Tel Ebyad and Ras’ul Ayn.
Preliminary reviews of those phrases being accepted had been denied by the Third Corps. Within the third assembly, which was held below the supervision of Turkey on October 16, the events reached a verbal settlement. However nobody has formally introduced it. Such is the knowledge from opposing sources.
What is going to truly occur when these circumstances are accepted is a brand new discipline the place HTS is dominant. In different phrases, a corporation listed as a terrorist group hangs over the Euphrates Protect and Olive Department areas. Erdogan’s males on the bottom are mediating this negotiation. That is what I imply by inventive shame. A couple of organizations akin to Ahrar al-Sham inside the SMO could be introduced ahead to save lots of the panorama. The connection between Ahrar al-Sham and HTS is sort of a love-hate relationship. However this partnership now works for each side. Ahrar, as soon as a favourite of Erdogan and his workforce, obtained a heavy blow from HTS in 2017. That is why there have been divisions inside Ahrar. The japanese flank had joined the Third Corps, led by Cephut al-Shamiye. When this group had issues on the new tackle, they wished to return to Ahrar with their weapons. That is why clashes broke out final June and Ahrar discovered HTS with him. The connection of Hasan Sufan, one of many leaders of Ahrar, with Colani was efficient on this rapprochement. The Turkish intervention, which stopped the primary transfer to grab Afrin in June, was not delayed. This time the scenario is completely different. As of yesterday, there was no phrase or angle that may drive HTS to withdraw.
The occasion that triggered the newest battle was this: Activist Mohammed Abu Ghanum, identified for his criticism of armed teams, and his pregnant spouse had been killed in Al Bab on 7 October. The Hamza Brigade was blamed for the homicide. Colani had been making ready to maneuver the management of HTS out of Idlib because the summer time, and this incident turned the pretext.
The difficulty of settlement between the conflicting events nonetheless stays unknown. When the clashes flared up once more yesterday, it was understood that the events had not but shaken fingers or the disagreement on how the implementation would proceed. Teams that see this as their finish might resist. After all, what does the “guardian angel” of the area command, give a hand to, and destroy? Who is aware of! What we do know is that whereas Erdogan’s formless Syria coverage is within the throes of change, habits and practices that don’t see his involvement with terrorist organizations as an issue are being repeated.