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happening in Europe energy crisis, along with the decrease in PMI figures, pandemic and recession orders in the Far East are suppressing. In the last quarter of the year, the dollar will continue to feel its power in metal and energy markets. Technical analysis shows that lower levels could be tested in oil, copper, aluminum, in the October-December period. Among the products that are expected to rise, wheat takes the lead.
The dollar, which is shown to be responsible for the downward trend in the commodity markets, is the Fed’s aggressive interest It seeks to gain even more power at its highest level in 20 years due to the increase in In the technical outlook report for the last quarter of the year prepared by Reuters, it is stated that the Dollar Index may rise to the range of 120.33-121.02. Region 121 marks the highest level since 2001. Both levels are being cited as significant resistance, with warnings that a pullback or further upside could trigger a rally.
In Reuters’ technical view, if the dollar rises to these levels, other commodity The following predictions are made regarding the price movements that may occur in these groups:
Brent could return to $77.56
The rise, which started at $ 15.98, the lowest level of 2020, was completed in March 2022 at $ 139.13. The prices, which were consolidated at $ 92 by withdrawing 38.2%, are expected to retrace by 50 percent and test the level of 77.56. Falling below this means the end of an uptrend. If this happens, the 57.95-67.75 levels can be started to talk. However, above 77.56 $83.63 stands as an important support. The expectation for American Petroleum (WTI) is that there may be a pullback to the $70.29 support level. The energy and oil ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ group, which consists of some non-OPEC producer countries, decided to reduce daily oil production by 2 million barrels as of November. However, despite the production cut decision, WTI’s barrel price decreased to $ 92 yesterday due to the weakening demand caused by tight monetary conditions. Brent oil was also sold at $97 a barrel on the first trading day of the week.
Metals don’t enjoy
Looking at the copper market, where the technical outlook is weak, it is seen that prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) may test the $7,175 support in the last quarter. A downside break from this level could push prices down to $6,103. According to technical analysis, which indicates that the great upward wave, which started at $2.817, the lowest level of 2008, was completed at the resistance of 10.173, it is stated that if it cannot find support as at 7.175, the price may first go down to $6,955 and then the downtrend will deepen. A tough final quarter is at hand for aluminum as well. After breaking the support at $2,347/ton in LME, it is possible for aluminum prices to try the $1,939 support, as recovery expectations weaken. It is warned that if it cannot stay here, we will witness decreases up to $ 1,659. Meanwhile, $2,259 is shown as a resistance level on the upside movements. It is estimated that exceeding this point will put the prices back in the $2,360-2,562 band.
Wheat price could go the other way from corn and soy
In addition to the central banks and the recession agenda, Russia’s comments on the grain deal and the US drought concerns are effective in pricing. With the announcement of partial mobilization by Russia, we have seen a strong increase in prices recently. dollar Although the index creates pressure, it is seen that the general trend in wheat prices is on the rise. In CBOT futures, the wheat bushel price is expected to exceed the resistance of 9.15 in the last quarter and reach up to 10.46 dollars. On the downside, there is an important support of 8.57 and if it is broken below, it may bring the $7.25-7.66 levels to the agenda. The United States, the world’s largest corn producer, is expected to harvest the lowest corn crop in three years. Drought has also damaged crops in Europe and is threatening South America’s upcoming planting season. However, it is estimated that prices may fall to $5.62, the lowest level in July, in the last quarter, with the effect of the strong dollar. However, it is not ignored that a support that can be taken from the $ 6.94 level can bring the prices to the range of $ 7.25-7.64. Soybeans are also expected to decline. If prices fail to hold the $14.01 support, the expectation in the last quarter is to test $12.82 per bushel. The downtrend could continue up to $11.64.
Gold prices could drop below $1,600
Ounce Gold increased to the highest level of the last three weeks with 1.729 last week. However, he had to give back some of his earnings with sales from this region. The United States, which surpassed expectations on Friday Agriculture After the non-employment figures, the levels of 1.685 and 1.658 can be followed as the first support zones in the precious metal, which was pulled behind the 1.700 band. Reuters technical analysis, on the other hand, points to deeper declines. It is reminded that the 38.2% retracement from the peak of the year $2,069 passed to $1,679. Below this, it is stated that prices can target the $ 1,558 support. However, it is noted that it can jump from $ 1.558, as it did from the support of $ 1.829 and $ 1.679 before. Otherwise, he warns that $1,437 could emerge as the next support.
Palm oil is also in the bearish channel
The rise in prices, which started at 1,331 ringgit per ton, finds strong support at 3,584. However, it is estimated that the selling pressure will strengthen from here and the prices will decrease to 2,723 ringit levels in the last quarter. Prices must stay above the $3,900 support for an upward attack. If this happens, it is possible to reach the level of 4.588 ringit. Prices hit a record high of 6,698 ringgit in May.
Coffee is wavy, cocoa pressure rises
Technical analysis indicates that the exit of ICE coffee futures at $1.97 per pound was completed at $2.36. As prices break the $2.10 support, they are likely to retrace their July low to $1.9460. Above $2.23 is important for upside. It is stated that if the prices stay above $2,2310, a bullish trend will emerge and may take the price to the range of $2.3625-2.4885. Cocoa is also one of the products with poor appearance. It is stated that it is possible for the prices to try the support of $2,067/ton in New York and withdraw to $1,829 from there. It is stated that the rise, which started at $ 2,206 before, is weak and limited to $ 2,345.