A specter haunts Europe: the specter of instability…
The European Union, which has been trying to keep its rudder firm in the face of strong winds for years, was stunned by Britain’s abandonment of the ship. Those who defended the idea of ”Let the EU be smaller but ours” soon regretted it. The reason, as you can imagine, is the Russian attack on Ukraine.
As the energy crisis deepened with the approach of winter, the refugee problem, the test of the world economy, which could not recover after the pandemic, with inflation, the need for ‘coupling and expanding the network of allies’ emerged in European capitals. The idea put forward as a result of this need was the European Political Community. (SUBORDINATE)
The community gathered in Prague, the capital of Czechia, for its first meeting. Before going into the details of the meeting, it is necessary to take a deeper look at the purpose of the community’s establishment.
French President Emmanuel Macron, who came up with the idea of the European Political Community. Macron, in his speech at the meeting held in the European Parliament on the occasion of “Europe Day” on 9 May, proposed the establishment of AST.
Macron’s proposal includes the implementation of a wider political formation in Europe than the EU. It is not considered as a new international organization but rather as a ‘political discussion platform’. Macron argues that the idea he proposes is important for the stability and future of Europe.
In addition to the 27 EU member states, the leaders of 17 non-EU countries on the European continent were also invited for the AST summit. One of them is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Besides Turkey, other countries invited are: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Iceland, Kosovo, Liechtenstein, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, Ukraine, England.
Looking at the geographical distribution of the invited countries, one has to be blind not to see that one of the aims of the meeting was to form a front against Russia…
However, judging by the comments made in the Western press, there is a cautious stance against the possibility of the meeting’s success. For example, Western diplomats speaking to The Times stated that the ‘happy family picture’ that Macron wanted to create is based on major fault lines and mentioned the difficulty of ‘putting Azerbaijan and Armenia on the same table’. Another remarkable comment in the same article is that European diplomats see this formation as an opportunity to distance Erdogan from Russia and bring him closer to Europe.
As I see such comments in the Western press, I cannot help but feel that the current political conjuncture in many European capitals cannot be read correctly. In fact, if I make a further comment, I think that such comments are disconnected from history and reality.
Because the transformation of Turkey, which has been kept at the door of Europe for decades, into a playmaker on its own and, moreover, its successful execution of a balance policy in this geography that has turned into a ring of fire, has still not been digested or understood.
While Europe is paying the price for its political choices with an energy crisis that will directly affect the homes of its citizens, it is a great success that Turkey will be able to spend this winter comfortably thanks to its close relations with Russia. The greater success is that Turkey can make these moves without weakening Ukraine and therefore NATO – on the contrary, by strengthening it. This is not an achievement to be taken lightly and is the basis of the ‘Century of Turkey’ promise expressed by Erdogan.
Yes, the main target of Turkey’s foreign policy has been EU membership for many years. In fact, EU negotiations officially started in 2005, during the first term of Erdogan’s leadership. However, a lot of water has passed under the bridge. The world has changed, the political balance has been turned upside down. In this process, the European Union suffered a lot economically and politically. So much so that a politician, Giorgio Meloni, who questioned EU membership even in Italy, which is one of the cornerstones of the European idea, won the election.
In the midst of all these turmoils, Turkey, which has been stalling for decades not to become a member of the EU, has managed to survive and further strengthen by following a policy of balance without being dependent on a single alliance.
This is exactly why I find Western diplomats’ comments about ‘taking Erdogan over to our side’ outdated. It is not known whether the CPR that Macron wants to do to Europe with the idea of AST will resurrect the dying continent, but it is obvious that this initiative will not be possible without Turkey. If Europe wants to increase its political weight in the world, it needs Turkey’s diplomatic power and growing-dynamic economy. Let’s see if Western leaders are ready to face this reality..
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