Hazal Lean
In this week’s press selection, we only cover Turkey news. Three headlines stand out in the four news stories: the alleged meeting between Ankara and Damascus, the speeches of İbrahim Kalın on CNN and Erdoğan’s on the Crimea Platform, the possible situation of relations between Turkey and Russia in a new government due to early election expectations in Turkey.
‘If the Turkish army leaves Syria, Syria is ready for negotiations’
… Turkish President Erdogan announced on August 18 his intention to improve relations with the Syrian authorities. …
Later, rumors emerged that Erdogan would meet Syrian President Bashar Assad in Beijing, but these reports were not confirmed. …
Turkish Foreign Minister M. Çavuşoğlu announced on 23 August that a dialogue was established between Turkey and Syria through the secret services of the two countries. In the same place, Çavuşoğlu also said that for now, there are no preconditions for the normalization of relations between the two countries, but that the Turkish side is fully open to negotiations.
Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mikdad said that Damascus is fully ready for negotiations with Turkey. But only if the Turkish army leaves Syrian territory. …
It is unlikely that Turkey will soon decide to abandon what it has so hard-held on Syrian territory, but even Ankara’s hypothetical readiness for peace has prompted some optimistic comments.
It should not be forgotten that the lands of Syria occupied by the Turkish army bring more expense than income to the Turkish budget. … Power lines, transformer boxes, even rails and water pipes from the occupied territories were collected and taken away for sale of scrap metal. Olives and other valuable trees were also uprooted in a number of districts. But these measures cannot compensate for Turkey’s costs.
There are also thousands of militants in occupied Syrian territory. At the moment, it is not possible for them to overthrow the Bashar Assad regime and their existence does not benefit Turkey at all. At the same time, they create a persistent zone of instability on Turkey’s southern borders, and even Turks are unsure of the loyalty of the armed radicals.
Therefore, dialogue with the Syrian government actually strengthens the hand of the Turkish authorities. … On the other hand, “giving Syria” will certainly create discontent in the West. But it is not possible to call Erdogan’s relations with his European and American partners good. …
The question is just this: Is Erdogan really ready for peace with Assad or is all this a bluff with the aim of gaining support from the United States for Turkey’s foreign policy towards Syria? (A. Sharapov / Regrum, August 24)
‘Full support from Syria to Russia’s Ukraine operation’
Cooperation between Russia and Syria will intensify even more. In the near future, mutual ambassadors will be appointed with the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. Russia, on the other hand, is ready to make its relations with Israel less smooth than it used to be; this is pleasing to Bashar al-Assad. It is possible to reach this conclusion from the negotiations between Russian Foreign Minister S. Lavrov and his Syrian counterpart, F. Mikdad, in Moscow. However, contrary to expectations, there is no clarity as to where the Syrian-Turkish rapprochement could lead. …
Citing sources from the Iranian Tasnim news agency, Assad and Erdogan intend to negotiate at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit to be held in Uzbekistan on September 15-16. Both leaders were invited there by Putin, the Iranian agency claimed. If this news is true, an interesting paradox emerges: The Russian leader has assumed the role of mediator that Erdogan wants to play. …
However, Turkish Foreign Minister M. Çavuşoğlu lowered expectations a little. He said that according to the data he had, Assad was not invited to the SCO summit. … In Moscow … The Foreign Ministers of Syria and Russia decided to get around the question of whether there could be a meeting between Assad and Erdogan. Mikdad said at the press conference in Moscow: “Efforts to get Turkish troops out of Syria are the only way to stabilize the situation on Syrian territory. We will not impose any conditions, but the Turkish occupation of Syrian territory must end.” …
Lavrov stated that the agreements reached in the Astana format will be fulfilled. At the summit in Tehran on July 19, Putin, Erdogan and Iranian President İ. He recalled the Chief’s statement and said: “This is a clear document; It is clearly affirmed that Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity will be respected there, and that no activity will be allowed to promote separatist tendencies.”
Lavrov’s rather harsh statement towards Israel in his speech at the joint press conference also impressed the observers. …
The Syrian minister expressed full support for Russia’s special operation and referred to it as “the rectification of history”. Mikdad also announced that they … will exchange ambassadors with the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics “in the next few days or weeks”. Moreover, it seems that the representatives of Syria may participate in the tribune, which, according to some data, is prepared in Donetsk. … (G. Petrov / Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 23 August)
‘Turkey should get around the Crimea issue’
İbrahim Kalın, the representative of the President of Turkey, said that Turkey’s view on the belonging of Crimea has not changed since 2014. Kalin said in an interview with CNN: “Crimea is part of Ukraine and this should be the basis of any agreement.”
In his speech at the “Crimean Platform” on August 23, Erdogan said that the protection of Ukraine’s territorial integrity is important for regional and global stability. …
The “Crimean Platform” forum was launched by the Ukrainian government last year, and the “de-occupation” of the peninsula was considered one of the main objectives of the event. …
In his speech at the forum, Zelenskiy repeated that he intends to take Crimea from Russia “by any means”, regardless of the attitude of Western countries: “Ukraine will take back Crimea from Russia by whatever means it sees right, and for this, there is no need to exchange views with other countries.” …
President of the Crimean Tatar national-cultural autonomy Eybaz Umerov interpreted Erdogan’s statement and urged the Turkish president to get around the Crimea issue in his statements and to be smarter about it. …
According to Umerov, Erdogan is baiting “the ringleader of the Nazi regime with a sweet pill” to realize his own national interests. (M. Rodionov / Gazeta.RU, August 24)
‘Russia should contact opposition forces in Turkey’
European Union officials do not rule out the possibility that Turkey’s leader Erdogan will hold early presidential and early general elections in the fall. In the opinion of European diplomats, things are not going well for Erdogan for now: Inflation is on the rise, the Turkish lira is on the bottom, the rise in prices and with them especially youth unemployment cannot be stopped. But the situation may improve a little with the tourism revenues that the state will get this summer. …
On the other hand, a source from Turkish diplomatic circles told Izvestiya that holding the elections now would benefit Erdogan’s opponents, and that it would be more advantageous for Erdogan to wait for normal elections.
The source Izvestiya spoke to said:
“There have always been rumors and allegations that Erdogan will hold early elections this fall. But the head of state categorically denied these news several times. The opposition insists on early elections, but economists working with Erdogan say the economy will start to recover in early 2023. Therefore, the government party can enter the elections with the president in the most advantageous way. The government promises that inflation will fall from the fall. The authorities are taking new economic measures that will start to work in 5-6 months, so it would be more advantageous for Erdogan not to rush for the elections.”
According to the Orientalist and writer Andrey Ontikov, if the opposition comes to power in Turkey, the relations between Ankara and Moscow will change. Ontikov says:
“Even though there are many conflicts between Ankara and Moscow on various issues, in Syria, Libya, Karabakh, and Ukraine, very constructive relations have been established between Russia and Turkey under Erdogan’s rule. … When escalation or tension arises, the parties sit at the negotiating table and discuss these issues and find contact points. This is a great merit of Erdogan and Putin.”
Ontikov also underlined that although Turkey is a NATO country, the West does not participate in the sanctions against Russia:
“Turkey has its own interests it aims to defend, it is trying to be a mediator between Russia and Ukraine. He succeeds in some things and fails in some things. Ankara plays a more dominant role in the world arena under Erdogan. Such an approach does not harm Russia in the least. If Turkey contributes to the solution of this or that problems, that is good. Erdogan is a very comfortable partner for Russia.”
According to Turkologist Alina Sbitneva of the Near East and Post-Soviet East Department of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Erdogan hopes to slightly improve the economic situation for his own benefit. Sbitneva adds:
“However, we see a planned deterioration in many indicators. … The situation is very dynamic in the arena of foreign policy as it is in domestic politics. Therefore, the possibility of early elections cannot be ruled out in the current situation, but it is a slim possibility, because Erdogan needs multiple victories in all areas. There are diplomatic successes on the grain corridor in foreign policy, and there are also reports that Turkey is preparing to reconcile the Syrian opposition with Bashar Assad. It remains only to find a way to solve the domestic economic crisis. This is a more difficult task.”
Sbitvina continues:
“We are much more used to him and his party and they are understandable to us. The approach of the other possible candidates and the parties they lead to Russia, as well as their political views as a whole, are, it can be said, specific. Taking into account that the situation in Turkey is now less predictable and that another leader could theoretically take over Erdogan’s post in a short time, it would be prudent to gradually establish contact with others, Turkey’s now opposition political forces. (K. Loginova / Izvestia, August 24)