How Erdogan will win even if he loses

The Hungarian example of the failure of six parties to unite and defeat a strong leader is the opposition’s worst nightmare scenario. He started out as a liberal-western politician on the road that the Western world and the press expected, and even George SorosGrowing up alongside but increasingly authoritarian Viktor OrbanThat’s how his power would be broken. Six parties nominated the most popular mayor for this cause, but he did not win, even in his own district. Hungary is engraved in our memory as a disaster scenario where the popular support gathered by authoritarian leaders is stronger than all opposition parties.

However, Hungary is not the only example for the Six Table and power. The opposition is so confident that he will win. Kemal Kilicdaroglu or he doesn’t see it as a risk to nominate even a jacket or an empty chair. Who knows, they might be right and whoever it really is Erdogancan beat . Because the political alliance, yes, failed in Hungary, but also in Israel, which no one said could displace Netanyahu this is how it fell. But those who know the ending of the movie Erdogan You will see that it is actually the best result for you.


The leaders at the Table of Six have nothing in common. from the same political party Davutoglu and Fatherly even leaving. The only thing they agree on Erdoganthat he must go. Uniting right, left and even Arab parties in Israel Benjamin NetanyahuIt was a desire to escape. And that reckoning was held, and together they managed to defeat Israel’s longest-serving prime minister.

However, those who thought that this wolf politician would be erased from history expected a different result in a very short time. Since the opposition bloc won the elections in Israel, a government could not be formed in the country. Re-elections were held almost every month, and different coalition models were tried. The people of Israel, who have lost their patience, are tired of the incompetence of the politicians, the system’s blockage and the failure of the business.

And with the support of the far right in the elections held last year, the Israeli people re-established themselves. netanhahuHe chose . He put those who drew him in one pen to the opposite corner and proved to be the only permanent leader in politics. Now he is changing Israel as he wishes, and is even preparing to redefine the criteria for being Jewish. After all, he has the power now.

Like many authoritarian leaders who can get the masses behind them but anger liberal democrats Netanyahu‘s main skill is the ability to get work done. Just as OrbanLike the Hungarian people who re-elected , the Israelis re-elected at least a leader they knew, knew, and was confident that they could do the job—even though they didn’t want to, because they didn’t have a better option, they didn’t want to re-elected—rather than the opposition, who couldn’t agree on a single issue.

In almost all countries of the world, voters no longer vote for intellectual reasons, but for practical reasons. The ability to complete a job like a tradesman is the greatest added value that politicians can have. Erdogan also acts pragmatically, like a company executive who aims at profitability in his last years. Deteriorated relations—Dubai, Qatar, Saudi Arabia—are being repaired for profit, the Russian crisis is turned into an opportunity, money is flowed to Turkey, negotiations are being made with the United States.

The fact that there is no shortage of products on the market shelves, that production still continues, that serious unemployment does not occur even though inflation increases and prices rise, and that life continues in some way is the result of short-term solutions produced by practical intelligence. Of course, since these solutions are short-term, ErdoganThere is a possibility of forcing him.

I don’t think there is a long-term plan at this stage. The government is trying to save the day and win the election. That’s why the mouth of the budget is opened, the wage increase is distributed, and no matter who takes office in the future, compelling steps are taken. economists Erdogan he predicts that even if he wins, his government will spend at least a few years rectifying today’s mistakes. Increase in interest rates, unemployment, contraction are inevitable, etc. Launching an unprecedented wave of spending just to win elections is a serious risk.


Maybe not win Erdogan It may be the best option for First of all, the predicted destruction will fall on the new government, and today’s mistakes will be borne by the new government. Moreover, it is clear that the Six Tables does not have a common plan for Turkey’s important problems, especially the economy. It is difficult to think of the archaic cadres of the CHP and Akşener’s brilliant team at the same table in terms of economy management. Those who advocate a liberal economy based on imports and apply these policies when they manage the economy. Ali BabacanIt is not possible to switch to a self-contained, production-based model with .

Will relations with Russia be severed and the flow of money will end, will relations with the Gulf countries be frozen and a Middle East policy based on the USA will be followed again? Table of Six is ​​not clear on these issues either.

Taking time to return to the old system, which is their only promise among all the work to be done, will also test the endurance of the Six Table power. For those who lived through the coalition governments of the ’90s, this means the resurgence of similar traumas.

The end of that process, a name that was not tried at that time, ErdoganIt was made for. A shaky and unstable Six Table power also rested / renewed waiting in a corner Erdoganit benefits. DemirelThey also laughed at Netanyahu‘or. finally voter “Save us Father!” he knocked on their door. This time too “father” in its place “head” they say.