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The fact that interest rate hike expectations in the markets are replaced by more moderate forecasts after weak data slows down the dollar, making it easier for precious metals to find support. Gold experienced a rapid recovery from the $1,614/ounce level it tested last week and settled in the region of $1,720-$1,730 this week. For the next step under the USA, which will be announced today Agriculture Non-employment data will be referenced.
The optimistic mood in foreign markets, which started with the delay of the UK’s tax reduction package, weakened with the loss of momentum in the appreciation of the sterling. In addition, although there was no statement from the authorities regarding a change in monetary policy, the central banks, especially the Fed, due to recession concerns. interest Evaluations that it could slow down the increase were effective. However, the fact that the US private sector employment came in above expectations this week reduced this perception a little. This situation highlighted the cautious wait for US non-farm employment.
Employment data will be reference
“The employment data could provide more clarity on the Fed’s tightening policy,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. If employment data comes out weaker than expected, gold will rally. If it comes out much stronger, it will point to the continuation of the Fed’s hawkish policy and drop gold.”
After gold surpassed the critical resistance at $1,670, it quickly broke other intermediate resistances at $1,725. dollar He says it’s important to come to the band. Closing above this level may bring 1.738 and 1.754 resistances to the agenda. In pullbacks, 1,720 and 1,704 are shown as important supports.
Gram gold On the other hand, 1031 important resistance is accepted, while 1038 and 1045 are observed above this point.
Commerzbank and TD maintain cautious stance
Despite the optimistic mood, maintaining the decline expectation finance organizations exist. Strategists at Commerzbank stated that the dollar will continue to exert pressure, lowering their gold forecasts and said: “We expect the Fed funding rate to rise to 5 percent by the spring of 2023, that is, 175 basis points higher than its current level. Therefore, the US dollar seems likely to remain strong for a while. We are revising our gold price forecast for the end of this year downwards to $1,700 per ounce (previously $1,800). We expect gold to climb to $1,800 per ounce (previously $1,900) by the end of 2023.” $1,580 warning from TD TD Securities strategists also warn that the last rally under it may reverse towards $1,580. The establishment expects strong resistance at $1,763. TD analysts believe the Fed will stick with its hawkish plan to move rates above 4.5 percent and this mode will move until inflation subsides. In this environment, we anticipate that gold will lose its strength and pull back towards our target of $1,580 in the coming months.”
