Global trade will grow strong despite shocks

Aysel YÜCEL/BRUSSELS

The report, published by German logistics giant DHL in collaboration with NYU Stern School of Business and covering 173 countries, provides important insights for policy makers and industry leaders. In the report announced with the press conference held in Brussels with the participation of DHL CEO John Pearson, energy Despite the recent shocks such as the financial crisis and the pessimism in the markets, attention is drawn to the resilient course of global trade.

In his statement regarding the report, DHL CEO Pearson stated that they aim the DHL Trade Growth Atlas to be a reference to understand and manage the changes in the global trade environment and said: “Trade will continue to be one of the most important drivers of prosperity, as it has been for centuries. In the current global business environment, DHL helps customers realign their supply chains and make these changes by weighing costs and risks in a way that is both efficient and safe. world’s leading logistics As a supplier, we offer stable and reliable services even in volatile market environments and offer solutions for all logistics needs”.

“It claims to contradict the predictions that there will be a regression in trade”

The DHL Trade Growth Atlas, which analyzes the world trade in goods, covers a total of 173 developed and developing countries. The economies analyzed in the report cover more than 99 percent of global trade, global GDP and the world’s population.

Steven Altman, Senior Research Fellow and Director of the DHL Globalization Initiative at the NYU Stern Center for Future Management, said: “The results of the report show that there are enormous opportunities for trade growth in global trade in both developed and emerging economies in all regions around the world. The trade environment is changing and new challenges are emerging, but this report contradicts the predictions of a serious decline in global trade.” The main findings of the DHL Trade Growth Atlas, which also examines the shares of countries and regions in global trade, are as follows:

Trade in goods rose 10% in 2021 compared to pre-pandemic

■ COVID-19 has not been a major blow to global trade, as many thought. International trade in goods rose 10 percent from pre-pandemic levels, even as serious supply bottlenecks hindered growth.

In 2022 and 2023, there will be moderate growth compared to the last 10 years.

■ Prospects for the future of trade growth remain surprisingly positive: trade growth forecasts have been lowered due to the war in Ukraine. However, projections indicate that trade growth in 2022 and 2023 will still accelerate compared to last year.

Growth in e-commerce will support goods trade

■ E-commerce sales boomed during the pandemic, with forecasts for cross-border e-commerce growth to continue strong.

Trade growth to accelerate in Sub-Saharan Africa

■ New centers of trade growth are emerging in Southeast and South Asia, and trade growth is expected to accelerate significantly in Sub-Saharan Africa.

China’s share of growth will fall from 25% to 13%

■ Trade growth is widespread in many countries. China has accounted for 25 percent of trade growth in recent years, and again the largest share of growth is expected to come from China, but China’s share is projected to decrease by half to 13 percent.

The trend of differentiation from China will benefit Vietnam, India and the Philippines

■ Vietnam, India and the Philippines are the leading economies in both speed and scale of trade growth projected to 2026. All three economies have the potential to benefit from the strategies of many companies as they seek to diversify China-based production.

Exports of emerging economies become more competitive

■ The share of emerging economies in global trade increased from 24 percent to 40 percent between 2000 and 2012 – half of this increase came from China. However, the share of developing countries has remained almost unchanged in the last 10 years. However, emerging economies continue the race with their connections with the global economy, innovations and leading companies. They are becoming major exporters of sophisticated manufactured products. They are becoming more and more competitive not only in low costs, but in innovation and quality.

“Uncertainties such as the exchange rate make forecasting difficult for Turkey”

According to the data in the DHL report, while Turkey’s import growth will continue at the same pace in the upcoming period, there will be a slowdown in export growth and this indicates that the foreign trade deficit will increase. In the projections made for the years 2021-2026, it is predicted that Turkey will fall from 24th to 27th in export growth in terms of volume, and that it will maintain its 23rd place in import volume growth. However, the uncertainties in the exchange rate make it difficult to estimate the value of the total trade in goods.

“The growth rate of imports will exceed the growth rate of exports”

Answering the questions of the WORLD at the meeting, DHL Globalization Initiative Director Senior Researcher Steven Altman summarized the results for Turkey in the DHL Trade Growth Atlas 2022 report as follows: “Turkey has a strong performance in general and the predictions are that this strong trend will continue. . In the previous atlas, Turkey was ranked 21st in the world with the growth in the volume of trade in goods. In the forecasts in this report, it is predicted that the growth in goods trade will rise to 20th place. In terms of volume growth rate, it is expected to rise from 68th to 63rd place. This indicates that rapid growth will continue for Turkey. Only on the trade value growth side, the growth rate of imports is expected to exceed exports. Turkey, which has been in the 27th place in terms of export value growth in the last five years, is expected to regress to 30th place in 2021 and to maintain its 23rd place in import value growth. Of course, these estimates may vary depending on uncertainties such as the exchange rate. It’s really hard to predict where the currency will go. However, my expectation is that the strong growth in trade will continue, but the uncertainty makes it difficult to predict the course of exports and imports.

DHL CEO John Pearson emphasized the importance of Turkey for them with the following words: “We continue to grow in double digits in Turkey. We have made serious investments in the last three years and moved to our new airport location. Our activities in Turkey continue to be really strong.”

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