In a live session, I asked the Central Bank Governor of the time. He misunderstood the meaning of my question and even made paranoid inferences. It was then that he decided to raise interest rates. I reminded that this decision did not coincide with the policies and economic priorities of our President, and I drew attention to the possible complications of taking up the interest weapon, thinking that it would be beneficial for him as well. Not wanting to understand, he chose to look for a calf under the ox. The next is known.
Seen once again at this stage that…
President Tayyip Erdogan all the risks, even the political costs. taking into account “fighting interest” your determination protecting. for markets “indicative rate” Since it is shaped by the Central Bank “short-term interest rates until the new year He argues that it should go down to single digits.” Of course, interest is just Monetary Policy. It’s not just the board’s statements. There are different rates in a wide range from Treasury borrowing interest to commercial loan interest. However, there are noticeable developments in those areas as well.
It’s a matter of interest… Those who think that it is considered simple, instantaneous, seasonal were mistaken.
Yes… a resilient group of them still “currency-interest-inflation” continues to stay in the devil’s triangle and oppose it from that front.
Not that… Today, 165 countries in the world 133 apply negative real interest rates.
Those who read the economy over pure interest, “global recession and serious at the expense of unemployment They say they will fight inflation. However, even in their memory, monetary policies are not the only and first means of fighting inflation. If the steps to be taken in the field of fiscal policy and structural measures are accompanied by moderate monetary policy measures, it is possible to achieve results in terms of price stability!
in a nutshell…
Without messing with the wheels of the real sector, “subject the economy to chemotherapy without holding” In addition, prescriptions to control inflation can be applied. From this point of view, it can be said that Turkey has diverged from common examples especially in developed economies and this divergence is positive for the Turkish economy.
As is generally accepted…
The inflation that Turkey is trying to deal with is at its core. “cost-driven!” Spherical “energy, commodities and food” that the increases in the prices of the Turkish economy hit the shores of the Turkish economy, and also reinvigorated the backward pricing habit in our country, and this process gradually increased. “sticky inflation” It is a fact that it is taking shape.
What is so real… In addition to the cost pressure originating from outside Turkey, opportunism at home, lack of competition in some sectors, abuse of dominant position in the market, and the ambition to quickly compensate for the losses during the pandemic period must also be taken into account. When the said factors are excluded from the general equation… It can be said that the current inflation will hover around 25-30 percent. And the calculations of the Ministry of Treasury and Finance are in this direction. In addition… Nobody should ignore the radical measures and tax reduction moves aimed at scaling the source of inflation and reducing the general cost pressure. Initially “base effect” Although it is predicted that the negative impact of imported inflation items will gradually decrease due to global reasons, Turkey will soon enter a period in which price increases cease first and then prices decline.
As for financing the current account deficit…
At the moment, this is the most critical indicator for market players. Issues such as how the current account deficit will be managed, how sustainable Turkey’s position is in the face of economic sanctions against Russia, when, how much and how the USA and EU will burden this sensitive spot are too important to neglect. And we, too, follow what is happening with high sensitivity and vigilantly respond to the fiction based on a clear error and omission item. Without going into the speculation/manipulation spiral, I can state that within the ethical codes… There is enough foreign resource inflow for the Turkish economy to complete this year without being out of breath and tired in terms of current account balance, it has started and will continue!
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