Think about it, you are experiencing a serious loss of votes in the country you have ruled for 20 years…
The probability of getting 50+1 percent in the 2023 elections seems very difficult.
Your lock picker may not have left you completely, but he is undecided.
There are two major issues they complain about, the economy and Syrian refugees.
In the next 9 months, you need to solve these two problems, or at least alleviate them.
In order to create relief in the economy, you need to find a significant amount of foreign investment and increase the foreign exchange reserve in the country.
It is almost impossible for such an investment to come from the West.
You were hopeful for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, but they are dragging their feet.
But there is one country where your mutual interests overlap, perhaps more than ever.
Russia…
While embargo upon embargo due to the Ukraine war, you are the key leader with whom Putin can easily communicate, both materially and morally.
Putin does not want your opponents to win the election because he sees that if they win, they will bring Turkey closer to the NATO-Western alliance.
In fact, the leader of the IYI Party even mentioned that Putin should be sanctioned during the war.
So Putin is ready to do whatever it takes to win the election again.
It can ease your economy with direct investments like Akkuyu, with a discount in natural gas, or by encouraging some Russian oligarchs to move their assets to Turkey.
But they have some demands in return.
One of those conditions is to make peace with the Syrian regime.
Can you make peace with Assad, with whom you have been with bloody knives until today?
Even if it means a big change of maneuver in foreign policy, it can actually work for you.
Because only in this way can you solve the second biggest complaint of your voters, the problem of asylum seekers.
If a significant number of Syrians return to their countries before 2023, your political advantage will be great.
In addition, the country that gives real support to the regions controlled by the PYD-PKK is the USA.
Assad does not want to open more space than necessary for a US-backed PYD.
If you get a solid guarantee that PYD members will not intrude into the buffer zone controlled by Turkey if you withdraw, is there any reason not to make things right with Assad?
For all these reasons, President Erdogan can make peace with Assad.
We always evaluate the possibility of the government’s reconciliation with the Syrian regime in terms of domestic politics, but it also creates serious consequences in terms of geopolitical balances.
Syria was actually one of the battlefields where the rivalry between the USA and Russia continued.
The USA preferred to do business with the PYD-PKK instead of Turkey.
Turkey’s reconciliation with Assad will mean Putin’s declaration of victory in Syria.
Let the USA, which ignores Turkey’s security demands, think about the future.
“Syrian refugees cannot return to their countries because Assad regards them as traitors. When they’re gone, he’ll judge them all and throw them in jail. That’s why they don’t go, they can’t go”, there is a repetitive memorization.
Journalist Sarkis Kassargian, who works in Damascus and monitors Turkey-Syria relations, talks about this groundbreaking reality. Contrary to what we think, he says that Assad also wants the refugees in Turkey to return.
According to Kassargian, there are 2 logical reasons for this.
First of all, the only way out of the Syrian regime, which is going through very difficult times economically, is to increase agricultural production. Assad needs the refugees to return to use in the agricultural workforce.
The second reason is political. The issue of asylum seekers is used by the West as a means of pressure against Assad. For example, the legitimacy of elections is questioned.
So, are the returnees prosecuted?
Not all those who come to Turkey are armed dissidents. Those who migrate for economic reasons and better living conditions are in the majority. Just saying “I went because there was no electricity” might be enough.
It is unlikely that Assad, who already has a legitimacy problem and wants to establish full dominance in his country, mistreat the returnees and take steps that will make him question himself in the international arena.
In short, it is difficult for all of them to return after living in Turkey for so many years, but at least they may not have to worry about what will happen to me if I return.