The genie is out of the bottle;
After President Erdogan’s meeting with Russian Leader Putin in Tehran and Sochi, stones began to be laid regarding the AK Party government’s transition from the “murderer Assad” discourse to the “my brother Assad” discourse.
However, the 11-year “war story” between Ankara and Damascus should not be forgotten; The way to normalize the AK Party’s relations with the Assad regime is full of obstacles.
TURKEY’S SALARY BUILD THE TURKISH FLAG
The first examples have already begun to appear;
Two sentences that came out of the mouth of Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu this week led to the confusion of the areas under the control of the Turkish Armed Forces in northern Syria.
Çavuşoğlu actually used extremely diplomatic expressions.
“To prevent the division of Syria, there must be a strong administration in Syria” and “We need to somehow come to terms with the opposition and the regime in Syria. Otherwise, there will be no lasting peace,” he said.
But even that was enough. The elements living in the region in the north of Syria, whose salaries were paid by the AK Party government, anti-Turkey demonstrations were held, it was up to the burning of Turkish flags.
The reason why a possible normalization between Turkey and Assad has drawn such a reaction is clear;
A “wild West” atmosphere prevails in northern Syria.
If a dialogue starts between Ankara and Damascus, the first thing that will happen to the armed mob in northern Syria will be the cut off their salaries from Turkey. In addition, the return of the Syrian state authority to the region in parallel with the normalization steps will ensure that the land registry records and the courts are restored. Those who will be most negatively affected by this will be those who have been able to solve everything with a weapon until now.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE AL NUSRA TERRORISTS?
In northern Syria, in the Idlib region, another “primary boil” is terrorist groups; The main subject of the Astana processes dragged on by Turkey-Russia-Iran was the neutralization of Al Nusra terrorists in Idlib. Turkey has undertaken this task.
However, the situation that has emerged over the years has not been the “destroying” of effective organizations in Idlib, which is also on the UN’s list of terrorist organizations, but the “taming” of them. Al Nusra and related organizations still dominate Idlib. Turkey’s reconciliation with the Assad administration will also be the “beginning of the end” in terms of Al Nusra’s domination. In such a situation, it seems inevitable that terrorists, who are not currently attacking Turkish elements, will reverse this policy.
Despite all these possible threats and obstacles, if the AK Party government really decides to take steps to normalize with Assad before the election, it will try to draw two conclusions from this;
To send back the Syrian refugees, who have become one of the biggest discontent of the electorate in Turkey, by making an agreement with Assad;
Again, in cooperation with the Damascus regime, to end the administration of the PKK terrorist organization PYD-YPG in the east of the Euphrates.
These are the elements in the election propaganda of the AK Party that can bring him votes. However, there is also the dimension of “discontented groups” that may occur due to these policies in northern Syria. How will they be “pleased”?
THE TIMING OF THE VOTER LIST POLYEMIC IN TURKEY IS CRITICAL
Putting all these together, the critical importance of the timing of the “voter list polemic” that started between the government and the opposition, in the words of CHP Leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, becomes apparent.
It is possible to suppress the turmoil in the regions under the control of the TAF in northern Syria, and to try to “silence” at least some of the elements that have cooperated so far, by various methods.
In this context, bringing the issue of citizenship to the agenda in places where money is not enough is the most plausible option.
The voter list polemic should also be looked at from this perspective.
As June 2023 approaches, it seems inevitable that the voter polemic will intensify.