➔ The performance of global markets in the upcoming period is also a candidate for a continuation of the previous three quarters.
➔ of the suffering The monetary amount totaled $43 trillion in just three markets, stock market, bond and crypto. There is no major development in the last quarter that will change this trend.
➔ Central banks will continue to increase interest rates and monetary tightening. It was not won in the fight against inflation, we are just at the beginning.
➔ We will still experience the pain that Powell promised to put the US economy and other economies into recession. Recessions will be used as a tool to reduce inflation. The decisions of the USA concern everyone.
➔ It will be expected that rising inflation will first level out and then decrease. Until inflation falls, interest rates will be raised and remain high, not lowered.
➔ The economies in Europe and the USA are expected to enter recession under the influence of increased interest rates, the ongoing Ukraine War and the ongoing energy crisis.
➔ The extent of recessions and how long they will last cannot be predicted.
NEW WORLD ORDER
➔ There is also the geopolitical side of the matter, that the 30-year period of super-globalization in the world ended with the Ukraine war. The war is not over, it is getting longer and longer.
➔ When we look back in the coming years, we can see that 2022 is the year that historical transformations started. The Russia-Ukraine War, which started on February 24, turns into a milestone.
➔ Now there is a divided world. The environment of trust and super-globalization established in 30 years was over in 30 days.
➔ The collapsed globalization order and the new world that is being established will take time and will not be established without pain or shock.
➔ There will be an invoice for this. Money, goods and people will no longer be able to circulate freely.
➔ Energy prices rose, costs increased, balances changed. It will not be possible for China to be the factory of the world and to suppress prices by supplying cheap goods.
➔ This means more costly commodities and supplies, and restrictions on the scope of activity of international companies.
DID THE PAIN PICK?
➔ The division of the global market will affect the size of companies and reduce their profits.
➔ In this transition period, financial assets need to be re-pricing according to the new world order, but there is no clarity yet.
➔ In this uncertainty, the markets seem to go with the flow. He can’t find a branch to hold on to, wherever he tries, the branch comes out dry.
➔ It can be predicted that losses will continue in global markets and new pricing will be made due to reasons that can be duplicated.
➔ Hence It is difficult to predict exactly where we are in the pain to be suffered. But the pain hasn’t peaked yet, the dose may change after that, and it may even be a double pain.
After presenting the 9-month balance sheet of financial assets and global developments yesterday, we left the examination of Turkey and the upcoming period until today.
Although inflation data got in the way, this is also closely related to our subject. Real returns on investment instruments can only be found by adjusting for consumer inflation.
Inflation was announced as 3.08 percent in September, below the forecasts. According to this 9-month inflation to 52.40 percentincreased to 83.45 percent annually.
Local financial assets diverged positively from global assets in the 9-month period.
TL VALUED 15 PERCENT
➔ As can be seen in the accompanying statement of financial assets, which we published yesterday, In 9 months, the dollar increased by 38.9 percent, the euro increased by 19.8 percent and the basket rate increased by 28.7 percent.
➔ Compared to 52.4 percent inflation in 9 months The Turkish lira appreciated by 15.5 percent against the basket exchange rate and by 8.8 percent against the dollar. we calculated. In this sense, exchange-protected deposits and foreign exchange sales seem to have worked.
➔ Interest rates fell to deep negative levels. Currency-protected deposits partially save the situation of TL savers.
➔ Stocks, on the other hand, became the second investment tool that can offer positive returns after real estate. While the nominal return of BIST-100 was 71 percent in 9 months, its real return reached the level of 12 percent against the inflation of the same period.
➔ The Bank index, which displayed a rapid increase from mid-July until September 13, after 164 percent premium Then it came back at the same speed. Bank shares faced with market abuses between September 13-29 down 43.5 percent. Despite this, it closed the 9-month period of the year with a nominal return of 85%.
➔ However IPO Index made more premium than banks with 104 percent. The main preference of domestic investors is new stocks and small stocks.
➔ One asset class in which Turkey differed positively from the world was real estate, while the other was the stock market.
➔ BIST has been the stock market that has provided the highest return among the world markets in the last 9 months and in the last year.
➔ If we include yesterday’s transactions after 9 months Borsa Istanbul’s 2022 premium increased to 82.6%, and its increase in the last year reached 142 percent.
➔ The closest stock market to Turkey is Argentina, where we compete in inflation. As can be seen adjacent, Argentina follows Turkey with 73.73 percent compared to the beginning of the year, and 86.87 percent in the last year.
➔ If Borsa Istanbul can maintain its positive separation from the world in the last quarter of the year, it will close the year 2022 as a leader. It will add a new one to the world championships.
➔ The previous world leadership was in 2012. The stock market equivalent of high growth consecutively in 2010 and 2011 came the following year. In a year when returns in stock markets were limited under the influence of the European crisis BIST became the yield leader with 60.5 percent.
➔ Now, the growth of 11.4 percent in 2021 and 6 percent in 2022 seems to be a little delayed in the stock market.