Tuesday, January 24, 2023
We all know that the exchange rate should actually be between 22-26 liras due to the current account deficit, budget deficit and the policy of interest below the inflation, which has now reached the level of insanity. However, with the Russian, Gulf, Net Error Missing, KKM supports, there is a journey under 19 barely.
This journey will end after the elections. Because the unpaid natural gas money will have to be paid to the Russians. Currency cannot be kept with money of uncertain origin forever. In a healthy economy, markets find equilibrium when exports are more than imports. Then the bitter truth will come to us, We will see movements over 20 in the exchange rate.
At this point, let’s answer the question of who wins:
If AKP wins, they will have to release the exchange rate to find the equilibrium price. We can also see a controlled exit. In this case, the rising exchange rate will increase costs, and there will be an enormous inflation wave created by the expanding money supply of the election economy, such as EYT, KGF, hikes, and low loans. It will impoverish the Turkish people.
As for housing, domestic purchases will decrease due to rising interest rates, but prices will continue to climb due to increasing inflation. In this case, we will encounter a stagnant housing market with high prices, and middle-income people will continue to be crushed by rent increases.
The stock market will continue to rise until the elections. Because the market has no alternative. The dollar is under pressure, interest rates do not save the inflation figure, gold has barely hit 1950 dollars, like whiny kids…
If we face the AKP victory, we will see a recession in the stock market because the last remaining foreigners will prefer to exit BIST with the prediction that Turkey will be a typical Middle Eastern country with a totalitarian regime.
Well, let’s get to the Six Table victory…
At this point, easy days are not waiting for us in the exchange rate, as a result, while there is a double deficit, that is, the current and budget deficit, the scarcity of dollars will continue. On the contrary, the Six Table should pay much more attention to the draw, because when the AKP pressure on the exchange rate is removed, upward movements may occur more severely. For this reason, we think that it would be beneficial to make connections for the provision of capital for control in the short term.
We consider that the foreign capital news announced by Kılıçdaroğlu after his London visits are institutional investors that will come in time. For this reason, in order to meet the short-term demand that will arise and to prevent the exchange rate crisis, Six Table officials went to meetings with the IMF. Verbal agreements are required for credit.
However, in the medium term, we can say that the exchange rate will decrease with the increase in market confidence and foreign capital that will enter the country, especially with the return to rational policies. We point out that it would be good to make preparations in order to avoid fluctuations in the short term.
The stock market, on the other hand, will provide the largest return in the world in 2023 if the Six Tables comes. The reason is very simple: The money escaping from Turkey since 2012 is 110 billion dollars. Why did they run away? Because they are afraid of AKP. Then it is not difficult to guess that this money will return. Plus let’s say this; That’s $110 billion, the figure for when the Federal Reserve’s monetary base was $4 trillion. Now the figure is 8.5 trillion dollars. Then the input speed will be x2. This is in BIST a historic rally means…
What will happen in the house is as follows: With the arrival of the Six Tables, the rapid withdrawal of inflation as a result of the balance in the exchange rate, the construction of the middle segment “Laz Contractors” will activate, because the low level of cement, glass, brick, etc. these people will encounter. input costs will give them a chance to build, which will increase supply and gradually saturate demand.
Controlling inflation will at least erase the identity of the house as an investment vehicle, a product that protects it from inflation. request for residence will occur and the price will be prevented from getting crazy again.
I drew the table for you; If you choose Six Tables, you will have a house, inflation will decrease, if you choose AKP, inflation will continue, you will be in need of help. It’s that simple…