Recent developments in Turkey show that as the elections approach, unexpected changes will occur in the existing balances and alliances.
Let me just remind you once again that politics is pregnant with bigger surprises than we think. Let me write for the hundredth time that these are more about our place in the new world than the titles we see in domestic politics.
President Erdogan’s messages during his visit to Serbia last week show that Turkey is again seeking a/new active balancing role in the new movements and crises in the Balkans.
Undoubtedly, it is possible to read some traces of the stage reached in Turkey-Russia relations during this visit. However, I would like to underline strongly that our role here is the balance to be created by Turkey’s historical mission in this geography, rather than the strengthening of Russia’s Balkan policies.
RUSSIA WILL BE HARD
We have a similar activity and history in almost all crisis areas around us. It should not be overlooked that this has advantages as well as difficulties.
The Russia-Ukraine war has lost its news value in accordance with the character of the modern world. However, the war continues and the results seem to push Russia to take harder moves.
If Russia cannot hold the areas it wants in Ukraine, it will increase its interest towards the south, especially in Georgia, in the not too long future. Also to Armenia and of course to Azerbaijan.
I would like to note in advance how much of what I have said concerns Turkey, and that it may suddenly become a threat.
The number of those who say that Russia’s abandonment of its Kyiv target and moving towards a more limited area has increased the West’s courage is quite high. Moreover, these are pro-Russian names.
As a matter of fact, messages are coming from the US administration that the war against Russia will take a long time and Ukraine will be supported with much more qualified weapons.
POLAND-RUSSIA WAR
I mentioned how Poland can “contribute” to this landscape by expressing that this country has become a giant NATO base.
Let’s see what messages come from Poland itself.
Polish Deputy Defense Minister Marcin Ociepa told Poland’s DGP newspaper last week that “Poland could engage in a military conflict with Russia in three to ten years.”
The deputy minister also said that the timing of this war “depends on how the conflict in Ukraine will end”.
Let’s add another table here.
As the Baltic Sea turns into a NATO inland sea, with the participation of Sweden and Finland, it is not surprising that Russia is heading south.
PREPARATORY PERIOD OF PRINCE CHARLES
Of course, Russia is also aware that it will see Ankara more than ever in its south. The balance or conflict that this encounter will create is indisputably one of the main elements of Turkey’s role in the world.
We are now entering a period in which the victory of Karabakh with the support of Turkey, the alliance formed between us and Azerbaijan, and the presence of England and Israel in the parenthesis of this rapprochement are more meaningful.
This alliance was also a sign of a period in which London would be more effective in the geography we are at the center of. If we write it correctly, the United Kingdom, its new king, III. With Charles, this will further increase the interest in the “symbols” bracket. (For those who deem the kingship and its symbolic values unimportant and ineffective, I recommend that Prince Charles, as he was titled at that time, examine how his interest in Islam and the Islamic world was built. That’s it for now.)
Let me write a prediction about the continuation of this interesting and seemingly complicated process for now.
Despite Greece’s aggressive stance and the fact that the US raises the bar for its support for the terrorist organization in northern Syria every day, I think that Turkey will come out of this clampdown and improve its economic balances.
However, I said in the previous article that we need a “new policy” to realize this.
I can foresee the codes of this new policy. However, I cannot say the same for the actors.
For now, I was able to convey a few parts of a great story to you. A policy that compiles this will undoubtedly deserve the “new” character.
Who has prepared themselves for this change and how quickly those who cannot read the process will be liquidated; we will see them in just 6-7 months.