Turkey commissioned! Will shake the throne of oil and gas

The Turkish National Energy Plan, which was prepared on the basis of the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources’ target of achieving net zero emissions by 2053, and which includes the steps to be taken until 2035, has been published.

According to the information compiled by the AA correspondent from the plan, it is estimated that Turkey’s primary energy consumption, which is 147.2 million tons of oil equivalent in 2020, will reach 205.3 million tons of oil equivalent by 2035.


Turkey’s electricity consumption, which increased by an average of 4.4 percent annually in the 2000-2020 period, is expected to increase by 3.5 percent annually until 2035 and reach 510.5 terawatt hours. It is calculated that the share of electrical energy in the final energy consumption, which was 21.8 percent in 2020, will reach 24.9 percent in 2035.

Turkey’s electricity installed power, which was 95.9 gigawatts at the end of 2020, is expected to reach 189.7 gigawatts in 2035, and the share of renewable energy sources in total installed power is expected to increase from 52 percent in 2020 to 64.7% in 2035.

Renewable energy sources account for 74.3 percent of the new electricity capacity of 96.9 gigawatts, which must be commissioned until this period.

The biggest increase in capacity among renewable energy sources is aimed at solar energy. Turkey’s solar power installed capacity, which was 6.7 gigawatts at the end of 2020, is planned to increase to 52.9 gigawatts in 2035.

This increase means that Turkey’s installed solar power, which was 9.32 gigawatts in November 2022, will increase by approximately 500 percent by 2035. If solar energy reaches a capacity of 52.9 gigawatts by 2035, solar energy will be the source with the highest share in Turkey’s total electricity installed power.

In wind energy, the installed power, which was 8.8 gigawatts in 2020, is expected to reach 29.6 gigawatts in 2035. The targeted capacity increase in wind energy stands out as 160 percent when the 11.36 gigawatt capacity reached as of November 2022 is taken into account.


Following the commissioning of the first nuclear reactor this year at Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant (NGS), Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, it is planned to generate 2.4 gigawatts of nuclear installed power by 2025, and this capacity to reach 7.2 gigawatts in 2035. Akkuyu NPP will consist of four reactors, each of which will be 1.2 gigawatts.

The installed capacity is expected to increase from 31 gigawatts in 2020 to 35.1 gigawatts in 2035 in hydroelectric power plants, 35.5 gigawatts in electricity generation from natural gas and 24.3 gigawatts in coal power plants.

In the event that the said capacity increases are realized, the share of thermal power plants, which cover production from coal and natural gas, in Turkey’s electricity production, which was 57.6 percent in 2020, will be reduced to 34.2 percent in 2035.

While the share of solar energy reaches 16.5 percent, the share of wind energy reaches 17.7 percent, the share of nuclear energy reaches 11.1 percent, the share of hydroelectricity falls to 17.3 percent. Other sources, including geothermal and biomass, meet the remainder of the production.

Within the scope of the targets to reach net zero emissions, it is predicted that the share of fossil fuels in Turkey’s primary energy consumption will decrease from 83.3 percent in 2020 to 20.8 percent in 2053. The share of coal in this total is 3.6 percent, the share of natural gas is calculated as 11.7 percent and the share of oil is calculated as 5.6 percent.

While the share of renewable energy sources in primary energy consumption will increase to 50 percent in 2053, it is estimated that the share of nuclear will reach 29.3 percent.


Ufuk Alparslan, the leader of London-based think tank Ember for Turkey, Ukraine and the Western Balkans, told Anadolu Agency, “Turkey’s solar potential is higher than the wind potential and this potential is spread more homogeneously throughout the country. In addition, solar energy consumes electricity that peaks in summer. It is also important in terms of energy security, as it can compensate for the deficiency that may arise from hydroelectricity in dry years.” used his statements.

However, Alparslan emphasized that much more new capacity allocations should be provided for solar energy in order for the solar power plant capacity to be commissioned every year to reach the levels in the plan, and said:

“Otherwise, the targets may remain on paper. Another issue is that while renewable energy capacity is increasing rapidly in the plan, we see that coal capacity does not decrease, on the contrary, it increases slightly. On the one hand, it is stated in the plan that electricity generation from coal will decrease from year to year, on the other hand, it is contradictory. I would have expected at least an announcement in the plan that no new coal capacity would be commissioned.”


Cem Özkök, President of the Energy Investors Association (GUYAD), stated that they are pleased with the creation of a national energy plan that focuses on renewable energy, and said:

“The conjuncture we are in indicates that the key to energy supply security is in our own resources. In addition, the deepening economic crisis around the world makes it necessary to direct our financial resources to other development areas within the country instead of paying energy-weighted foreign debt. Like Turkey, it is rich in wind power and has high solar radiation rates. Undoubtedly, it is obvious that a high country should increase its installations in the field of renewable energy.”

Pointing out the importance of making regulations quickly and in line with expectations, Özkök said that Turkey has the will, determination, skills and trained human resources to achieve these goals.