The 15th issue of the report, in which PwC analyzes mergers and acquisitions in the Turkish energy sector on an annual basis and includes the developments waiting for the sector, has been published.
According to the ‘Mergers and Acquisitions in the Turkish Energy Sector 2022’ report, 31 mergers and acquisitions took place in the energy sector during the past year. The total estimated value of these transactions was recorded as $2 billion. Considering that 40 mergers and acquisitions worth $2.8 billion were recorded in 2021, this table shows a significant decline of 29 percent in 2022.
When the sub-details of the report are examined, the average transaction value in 2022 remained almost the same compared to the previous year and amounted to 65 million dollars. While it is observed that almost all of the transactions are in the infrastructure sector, which consists of electricity generation, distribution, retail and natural gas distribution sub-segments, the most interest among these transactions focused on renewable energy assets.
‘RISING TREND ENDED’
Engin Alioğlu, Partner of PwC Turkey Acquisition and Merger Services, said, “The upward trend in mergers and acquisitions in the Turkish energy market, which started in 2020 and continued in 2021 despite all the uncertainty brought by the pandemic, seems to end in 2022. The situation can be evaluated as a result of the deepening economic crisis in global and national markets.In the global picture, the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis that deepened the cost of living, the efforts to keep the pandemic under control, the sharp decline in the market values of technology companies, high inflation, interest rates, global commodity prices. We see that factors such as fluctuations, price uncertainty in mergers and acquisitions and the reasons for the contraction come to the fore.
Engin Alioğlu stated that these global factors are also effective behind the downtrend in the Turkish energy market and emphasized that the depreciation of the Turkish Lira and the resulting decrease in credit ratings also increased the effects of these factors.
Alioğlu continued his words as follows: “Despite the news about the discovery of natural gas reserves in the Black Sea, the lack of progress in liberalization in this market seems to limit the interest of investors. Another striking point is the movements of foreign investors. Although the share of mergers and acquisitions by foreign investors in all transactions, which was 75 percent in 2021, decreased to 31 percent in 2022, we consider the acquisitions of Middle Eastern companies in different segments of the electricity infrastructure market as positive developments.”
Emphasis on ‘CONFIDENT SHOOTING POINT’
The report also includes some predictions in the light of these data. Accordingly, efforts by energy management in Turkey to align their actions with global best practices shaped by the Paris Climate Agreement are promising.
However, the fact that this slowdown in mergers and acquisitions is parallel to the slowdown in global markets does not mean that the Turkish energy market will automatically recover with the recovery of global markets.
According to the analysis in the report, with the Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism (YEKDEM) failing to encourage acquisitions and mergers at the expected level so far, it is emphasized that new and reliable points of attraction must be urgently found in order to decouple from the global crises and make the most of a possible global recovery. .
Although there is still interest from foreign investors, it is necessary to create a suitable environment for future transactions to be exchanged in the ‘seller market’, which better reflects the true value of target companies with high-quality assets and workforce, rather than the current ‘buyer’s market’. .
In this context, it is now more important than ever for energy management to go beyond the short-term plans for the 2023 general election and to give Turkey a safer port status with a long-term perspective.
ELECTRICITY MARKET LEADER IN NUMBER OF TRANSACTIONS
Due to the 15th year of the report, a section evaluating the last 15 years of the Turkish energy market is shared with the readers.
According to the analysis, the electricity market, where liberalization policies were successful, was the market where the most mergers and acquisitions took place in the last 15 years.
The key attraction points were that the total electricity demand increased sustainably with a combined annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5 percent and reached 320 billion kWh in 2022 and that Turkey met this demand by investing in its own generation capacity. As a result, the installed capacity increased by 7 percent CAGR to reach 103 GW in 2022.
The report also divides these 15 years into two in terms of structural changes in the market and the profiles, resources and interests of different investors:
– 2008-2017 (first 10 years): In this first period, factors such as privatization of public electricity and natural gas assets, high energy demand, high foreign investor interest, rapid development of the renewable energy market, emergence of the electricity spot market and fundamental changes in the fuel market led to the realization of numerous and high-value mergers and acquisitions.
– 2018-2022 (second 5 years): In this period, although the positive developments in the renewable energy market continued to be the focus of attention of domestic and foreign investors. However, factors such as macroeconomic problems, the gradual exit of foreign investors, deepening problems in the fuel market, deepening debt problems in the electricity sector and the pandemic prevented the momentum of mergers and acquisitions from continuing.