Ufuk KORCAN / THE ROUTE OF MONEY
There have been incredible movements in Borsa Istanbul lately. In an environment of high inflation, new economy Keeping the interest rates low within the scope of the model pushed the savers to seek to protect their money. The trend towards foreign currency has been stopped with the Currency Protected Deposit (KKM) product. Although those who invest their money in KKM guarantee the exchange rate return, they have not been able to gain an advantage against inflation so far. For those who equate the lower limit of their return to the inflation rate, there is no other door than stocks or equity funds.
HARD BRAKE FROM BANKS
This prominent impulse of the savers increased the interest in Borsa Istanbul. The record increases experienced in Borsa Istanbul also supported the participation of new ones in the caravan of the stock market. However, newcomers to the stock market witnessed last week that stocks are open to two-way sharp price movements. The rally experienced especially in banking stocks in recent weeks has carried the index to historical peaks and the main agenda had made the stock market. The breathless rise in bank shares, which experienced increases of up to 200 percent in 1 month, left its place to a hard landing on Tuesday.
DON’T THINK SHORT TERM!
So much so that some stocks, which were the ceiling on Tuesday, completed the day at the bottom level and the selling pressure continued in the following days. Those who follow this page will remember that the rise in bank stocks may have come to an end last week and we warned them to be careful. Those who have stepped into the stock market before are used to such movements of stocks. However, new entrants also encountered the other side of the stock market.
PATIENCE COLLECTED FRUIT
First of all, it is worth noting that. Those who will invest in stocks should not be eager to make a lot of money in the short term. Exchange A market for long-term investment. When we look at the historical data, it is revealed that those who think long-term do not lose money in the stock market. The table on the page expresses the return of the investment made in the same month 5 years ago every year. In other words, when looking at the 5-year returns of the investments made in the stock market by months since 2002, no investor has experienced a meltdown in their capital after 5 years, no matter when they enter. Some of you may compare returns with recent high inflation, but performances in the past years show that returns are above inflation. Therefore, those who make long-term investments in stocks reap the fruits of their patience. In this process, when the dividends (profit share) given by the companies are taken into account, the earnings are formed much higher.
When we look at the returns in terms of 3-year periods, the situation is not much different. It is seen that the 3-year returns are negative only in the years of economic crises. This corresponds to only 25 of the 264 months.
Attention to the levels of 18.25-18.27 in dollars!
Staying above 17.07 TL level in the parity can be used as a technical explanation of testing 18.25 TL levels. Now the critical point is 18.25-18.27 TL levels. Breaking this band upwards will increase the risk of possible upward movement in the parity. Because the failure of this region to break after a few tries may bring about a loss of power in the parity. In such a scenario, a pullback can be expected to the level of 17.07 TL, with 17.38 TL being the intermediate support point. However, the most important support point for the pair is at the level of 16.81 TL. Because this point is the support point of the upward trend that started on the week of January 3, 2022. In order to talk about a relief in the parity, it is necessary to see closings below this level.
Despite the decline in the stock market, the upward trend continues
Although the BIST 100 Index had a downward trend last week, it still continues on the upward trend that started in the week of July 18, 2022. For this week, the support point of this trend coincides with the level of 3 thousand 311 points. As long as the support point of this trend is not reached, it can be said that the short-term trend in the index is up. In the case of a large volume of gold, there may be a risk of regression towards the 2 thousand 890 – 2 thousand 900 band. In case of the continuation of the upward movement, 3 thousand 800 point levels can be targeted, albeit gradually. In such a scenario, 3,570 points level will also work as an intermediate resistance point.