The race of housing with gold and dollars

As of July, the 7-month inflation rate of the year was 45.7 percent, while the housing prices monitored by the Central Bank increased by 105 percent. The last one-year housing price increase was 174 percent. There is a price increase that doubled the 79.6 percent inflation rate of the same period.

The rate of increase in housing is on the basis of Turkey average. While there are provinces and regions that are below the average, there are also those that are above the average. Adjacent are the annual housing price increases according to the province classification with the Central Bank data.


➔ For example, the last one-year increase 200 percent in Istanbul, 215 percent in Antalya, 189 percent in Adana and Mersin, It reached 185 percent in Muğla.. These increases in housing prices reached record levels with the effect of mostly local purchases in Muğla and foreign purchases in other provinces.

The development that really boosted house prices was the start of interest rate cuts in September 2021.. In that month, the average price of a house of 100 square meters in Turkey is 5 million 13 thousand liras and at an average rate of 8.50. It was $58,954.

➔ In the last 10 months, the price of the same house is 13 million 936 thousand TL, increased to 76,572 in dollar terms. 53% increase in 10 months in dollar terms.

In other words, the housing price increase dollar exceeded this rate. This is the chart for the last 10 months.

➔ The longer-term chart gives similar results. Our SecuritiesThere is a series that has been followed since the beginning of 2010, when the housing prices were published by the CBRT. The return of the house in which the rent is included is compared with the returns of financial investment instruments. There is a graph of it adjacent to it, both year-on-year and in total.

➔ First of all 12.5-year total increase in consumer prices is 475 percent. let me specify. Those who are significantly below this increase have lost in real terms, and those who are above it have gained in real terms.


➔ As a compound 12.5 years The highest return is 1.862 percent under grams. appeared.

The return obtained by investing the dollar in time deposits reaches 1.394 percent.

➔ The return from the use of Euro as time deposit is 912 percent.

The return of the house, including rental income and value increase, was 1.161 percent. 5 percent of the housing price was taken as the annual rental income.

➔ Stock market index The 12.5-year premium was calculated as 374 percent.

TL time deposits were at the bottom of the yield. The 12.5-year yield was 291 percent, well behind inflation. This means a loss of about a third in real terms.

➔ Here, the funds in the private pension system have no income. Let’s add that too so that the table is complete. 275.97 in January 2010 Pension Surveillance Center All Index It rose to 1498.14 in July 2022. The increase is 442.5 percent.

➔ It surpasses deposits and the stock market, but falls behind inflation. However, the state contribution of 30 percent in BES is not included in this income. With the government contribution followed in a separate account, the final yield of the PPS exceeds the inflation rate.


➔ There is such a picture in the world of savings. The real interest rate of the TL has turned into negative on a large scale with the effect of the global interest rates falling to the lowest level in the past years.. It has gone into a deep negative period since September of last year. and became the most negative in the world.

➔ When TL has no or negative returns, the return of foreign currency is of course maximum. The 12.5-year cumulative returns also show this.

As both negative interest rates and high inflation fueled demand, house prices rose to historical highs. For this reason, middle and low-income people are no longer able to afford housing.

➔ This is why A record application came to TOKİ’s sale of 250 thousand residences and 100 thousand land plots. Applications will continue until the end of October, but the statement made on the morning of September 19 was that the applications for the first 5 days had increased to 3.5 million. Applications were received at the level of 10 times the number of houses and plots put up for sale in 5 days.

➔ If house prices are competing with gold and dollars, why not attack such a campaign?

➔ However, the aim here is to provide housing for low-income people and to solve the housing problem. For this reason, the houses were put up for sale at a 40% discount.

➔ But when the housing prices are flying, will the citizens ever be left behind?

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