The war between Russia and Ukraine continues with all its destruction. starting on February 24 and RussiaThis war, which is defined as a ‘special military operation’ by .
The Putin administration, which does not want NATO on its border and shows Ukraine as “Russian territory”, citing historical reasons, claims that Ukraine is in the hands of the Nazi mentality, that the citizens of Russian origin living in the country are persecuted and that this situation poses a threat to the existence of Russia.
Ukraine, on the other hand, states that they are free to enter into any alliance as an independent state, and rejects the allegations of ‘Nazi’ and ‘torture of the Russians’.
The war continues to surprise a significant part of the world public opinion, both with the preparation phase and the process that developed after the beginning.
Russia described the rhetoric of “they will attack Ukraine” as “hysteria” when it was massing troops on the Ukrainian border. While the prevailing opinion in the world public opinion was that Putin could not afford this, the Russian army entered the Donbass region on February 24.
In the ongoing process, the idea that the Russian army will enter Kiev in a short time and the Zelensky government will fall gains weight, while the Ukrainian army has regained some of the lands occupied by Russia in the last 7 months.
Last week, however, with his new move, Putin brought the process to a very difficult point of return: the annexation of 4 regions of Ukraine.
When we look at the effects of the war today, we see a Europe struggling with the highest inflation in its history and a USA that has failed to create alternative energy sources for the Western world.
So what is Russia’s situation? Did the Russian people embrace the war? Is it possible for the Putin administration to be overthrown by an internal rebellion? What is Russia’s power and position in the new world order? British political scientist Prof., who has published many researches and books on Russia’s domestic and foreign policy, holds the title of ‘honorary professor’ from Moscow State University and works at Kent University in England. Dr. We asked Richard Sakwa.
“WAR IS NOT YET OVER!”
- Russia declared that it annexed four Ukrainian territories. Has Putin achieved his goal in the Ukraine War?
Goals have been flexible and adaptable. The initial goal was the ‘de-nazification’ and ‘demilitarization’ of Ukraine, which meant regime change in Kiev. This was clearly not achieved, although an almost neutral Ukraine was achieved at the Istanbul meeting on 29 March, before the peace agreement was blocked by the United States and Britain. The next goal was the protection of Russian “citizens” in the Donbass and elsewhere. So far this has been partially achieved at best. At the same time, the costs of the war were enormous. Western sanctions will ultimately take a heavy toll on the Russian economy and therefore society. First of all, the overall goal was to increase Russia’s security, and this has clearly not been achieved – until now! The war isn’t over yet.
“RUSSIAN ATTACK CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WINTER SEASON”
- Does Russia’s call for semi-mobilization indicate that Russia is in a difficult situation in Ukraine??
Yes, Putin tried to avoid any mobilization (The current situation is not a full mobilization, but the call of reservists). Even this effectively broke the Putinian social contract, where political passivity was rewarded with improved living standards and no intrusion into private life. This is now broken.
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Description of ‘partial mobilization’
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu; He announced that as part of the partial military mobilization announced by Putin, 200,000 people have been called up so far.
This shows that Russia is indeed facing a much greater challenge in Ukraine than she expected. Russia encountered not only a much tougher Ukrainian resistance than expected, but also massive intelligence and material support to Ukraine from the West. It was unrealistic to believe that ambitious targets could be achieved with less than 200,000 forces. Developments in Ukraine showed that a new approach is needed. A Russian attack can be expected when winter conditions enter and the ground freezes.
“TURKEY’S POSITION IS HIGHLY APPRECIATED”
- What effect does the isolation of Russia from most of the world have on the Russian people??
Deep sadness. A few militant nationalists welcome the break with the West, and the majority still support Putin’s broad war aims in Ukraine, but Western sanctions have been devastating. It will take some time for the economic effects to fully appear, and Russia will adapt and survive. Also note that Russia has de facto support and comfort from much of the Global South that refuses to participate in Western sanctions. Countries like India, China, Saudi Arabia have effectively stood by Russia.
Escape from Russia to Antalya!
The last ticket is 202 thousand TL!
After the partial mobilization announced in Russia, air ticket prices increased more than 10 times due to the intense demand of the citizens of the country to cities such as Antalya, Istanbul, Izmir, Dubai, Tashkent, Baku, Tbilisi, Yerevan and Astana.
Turkey’s position as an intermediary, peaceful and honest partner is highly appreciated. Above all, Turkey’s refusal to participate in Western sanctions, and Russia’s flights to the West via Turkey, provide Russia with a vital lifeline. This is highly appreciated by Russian travelers (and Westerners in Russia).
“RUSSIANS SEE THIS WAR AS A ‘PATRIOTIC WAR'”
- Are the current codes of Russian society predisposed to a revolt against Putin? Or do the Russian people have faith in the leader? Has the ongoing war with Ukraine been adopted as a ‘homeland war’??
As in 1709, 1812, and 1941, it is now definitely seen as a patriotic war. Support for Putin and his Ukraine policy remains high, especially as Western sanctions increase the ‘rally around the flag’ effect. However, in addition to the approximately 200,000 who had previously departed, there are also large fronts of resistance, ‘mostly professional and technical experts’, of about 300,000 fleeing partial mobilisation.
The Putin regime faces unprecedented threats and its fate depends on the course of the war. Defeat in Ukraine threatens regime change in Russia. ‘Victory’ (however defined) means the consolidation of the regime.
“PUTIN’S FALL IS CHINA’S BIGGEST NIGHTMARE!”
- Is Russia in a more powerful and independent position in the new world order? Or is there a more dependent Russia on China?
There is a school of thought in Russia that believes Russia could emerge stronger as a result of the conflict. Import substitution and the development of domestic resources and skills are key elements rising to see the survivability of a “Russian stronghold”. However, costs rise, including technological and social disruption.
As for dependence on China (and India), the already asymmetrical relationship will become even more asymmetrical. But it is also in China’s interest not to see Russia humiliated, so it will support the regime. The Taiwan crisis over the summer showed that China needs Russia as much as Russia needs China, albeit in different ways. The last thing China needs is NATO on its border with Russia. As former US National Security Advisor John Bolton recently suggested, joining NATO for a post-Putin democratic Russia is Beijing’s worst nightmare!