The presidential system has been a catastrophe for the Turkish financial system. Within the final yr, we now have skilled the quickest growing inflation within the historical past of the Republic. In the meantime, there have been three foreign money crises (2018 Pastor Brunson Disaster, summer time 2020 and autumn 2021 crises), the greenback jumped from 4.5 TL to 18.6 TL. Hundreds of thousands of individuals have been pushed into poverty.
Regardless of all this, why is AKP’s vote nonetheless above 30 p.c? And extra importantly, why has there been a slight improve within the AKP’s votes in current months?
Completely different opinion polling corporations have detected a rise in AKP’s votes in current months. For instance, based on the information of Yonelem Analysis, the AKP’s votes elevated by 3 factors in October in comparison with August, reaching 32.4 p.c. Within the analysis of Metropol, there’s a lower within the price of undecided individuals and a rise within the votes of the ruling get together. How is that this doable regardless of what has occurred within the financial system?
The truth that AKP’s votes don’t fall beneath 30 p.c is one other matter, however the improve in current months is usually associated to a behavioral sample: our fish reminiscence.
Fish reminiscence isn’t a phenomenon distinctive to as we speak. Actually, it’s not a phenomenon distinctive to Turkey. “FitratI do not know if it is about ”or training stage, however voters normally consider the final yr whereas figuring out their voting choice.
The reminiscence of the times when the greenback rose from 8-9 liras to 18 liras in a number of months, and the inflation price from 10 p.c to over 50 p.c, steadily fades in our reminiscence. The greenback has been hovering round 18 TL for months. A lot in order that, for the primary time up to now days, ‘foreign money return’ was not paid by the Treasury on currency-protected deposits. The quarterly price of improve within the greenback remained beneath the 13-15 p.c inflation price given by the banks.
As a result of the worth of the Turkish lira is now not decided within the free market, however in Ankara. Turkey switched to an interventional alternate price regime. Greater than $100 billion in overseas foreign money has been bought from the Central Financial institution’s reserves for the reason that starting of the yr to intervene within the alternate price. Greenback features worth all around the world, Euro, Sterling, Yen regressed to unprecedented ranges, which is the rationale why TL has been flat for some time.
In different phrases, the ruling former Rize Deputy Sevki YilmazHe adopted the recommendation given by . Yilmaz mentioned: “The AK Occasion has to open the case earlier than the elections. Sir, you say we now have 700 tons of gold, we now have this many {dollars} within the Central Financial institution. Who will you permit it to? Is that this for thieves?”
Controlling the greenback with reserve gross sales triggered the acceleration in inflation to lower. Inflation has not disappeared, costs are nonetheless rising, however the price of improve has slowed.
The soundness offered within the alternate price was digital, who is aware of the place the Turkish Lira would fall if reserve gross sales stopped, the Central Financial institution’s reserve excluding swap (foreign money swap) had decreased to minus 58.5 billion {dollars}, a catastrophe awaited Turkey after the election… These are the agenda of economists. Voters have a look at the present standing of their wallets as we speak, as they did yesterday.
As of subsequent month, annual inflation will begin to decline as a result of base impact. Month-to-month inflation had skyrocketed to an unimaginable 13.58 p.c final December and 11.10 p.c in January. Since annual inflation is calculated primarily based on information from the identical month final yr, it can seem to lower on this December and January. Will the value will increase cease? No, it is not going to cease, the hikes will proceed at full pace, however the authorities will use the decline in annual inflation for propaganda. Among the fish reminiscence selector shall be affected by this.
Asserting the choice financial system program of the opposition as quickly as doable, “We handle higher” he has to make his declare.
In any other case, the one who took the horse can go to Üsküdar once more.
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