ITO mentioned 3.96 p.c for October, let’s have a look at what we are going to hear from TUIK

✔ Though the CPI could also be greater than the speed of the ITO on a month-to-month foundation, such a risk is now very low. Due to this fact, the October CPI enhance to be introduced by TURKSTAT will in all probability be under 4 p.c.

In keeping with the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce, the rise within the Istanbul wage earners’ livelihood index was 3.96 p.c in October. Thus, the rise within the first ten months reached 81.83 p.c and the annual enhance reached 108.77 p.c.

TurkStat will announce the October information tomorrow. Though we’ve seen the month-to-month charges of TurkStat above the charges of ITO in some months up to now, and subsequently, there’s a risk that TurkStat will announce a CPI enhance of greater than 3.96 p.c in October, it’s hardly believed that this may occur. Due to this fact, the October CPI enhance, which might be introduced by TURKSTAT tomorrow, may be very more likely to be under 3.96 p.c.

Moreover, to be able to keep at 65 p.c within the medium-term program for the entire 12 months and 65.2 p.c within the Central Financial institution’s inflation report for the year-end, it shouldn’t be over 4 p.c in October.

If October passes round 3 p.c and an analogous fee is available in November, annual charges will peak at 84.5 p.c on the finish of October; then it goes all the way down to 83.6% in November.

The drums are ready and when a fee of three p.c is reached once more in December, the annual CPI enhance instantly drops to 66.5 p.c.

Annual inflation is diminished from 84 p.c to 66 p.c; a full 18-point drop and let the drums play, let the halay dance!

That is how we eliminate the scourge of inflation!

By decreasing the curiosity!

“So curiosity is the trigger and inflation is the consequence” we are saying as soon as once more…

“Request interest down, inflation fell” we converse with our chest.

TUIK-ITO distinction is regular

In reality, the patron value index of TURKSTAT and the dwelling wage index calculated by ITO for Istanbul could not give very shut outcomes on a month-to-month foundation. Usually, there are totally different ratios.

Nonetheless, even when totally different charges are noticed on a month-to-month foundation, it’s anticipated that the charges will go parallel to one another in the long term, for instance, in a one-year enhance.

As a matter of truth, this parallel existed till March of this 12 months. After March, the speed of ITO began to extend a lot sooner and at last reached 108.77 p.c on the finish of October. CPI, then again, will rise to 84.5 on an annual foundation if the rise in October is 3 p.c. So there might be a distinction of precisely 24 factors.

That is what shouldn’t be regular. In any other case, for instance, ITO introduced 3.96 p.c for October; However, TURKSTAT declared 2.96 or 4.96 p.c, which isn’t crucial. One month could also be one, one other month could also be greater. The essential factor is that the overall fee doesn’t differ a lot within the sum of three or 5 months, particularly in a 12 months.

Allow us to state as soon as once more why we can’t anticipate the 2 indices to be the identical within the quick time period like one month…

The merchandise coated by the indices are totally different, the load of those merchandise within the indices is totally different, the calculation of TurkStat is for the entire of Turkey, the calculation of the ITO covers solely Istanbul…

In wholesale, there’s a distinction in the other way.

Whereas the ratio of ITO is excessive in shopper costs, the alternative state of affairs is skilled within the wholesale or producer value index, one other indicator that reveals the distinction within the indexes of the 2 establishments.

In keeping with the ITO, wholesale costs elevated by 5.89 p.c in October. The ten-month enhance was 70.83 p.c, and the annual enhance was 104.21 p.c.

In different phrases, in response to the ITO, the rise in wholesale costs is decrease than the rise within the subsistence index.

However, TUIK is the alternative. In comparison with the state of affairs on the finish of September, the rise in shopper costs was 83.45 p.c, whereas the rise in home producer costs reached 151.5 p.c.

ITO indices are outdated

It’s a must to settle for this truth. ITO indices, particularly the wholesale value index, are already old-fashioned. The wholesale value index of ITO is calculated on the premise of 1963. No mistake, 1963!

Due to this fact, even utilizing the wholesale value index for comparability could give misguided outcomes infrequently.

The wage earner subsistence index remains to be an index that can be utilized. However the identical shouldn’t be true for the wholesale index.


✔ An exemplary assertion from the Central Financial institution! In a letter despatched to the Banks Affiliation, an expression similar to “off hours” was included.

Whereas talking, most individuals have the behavior or the urge to make use of phrases and ideas in a overseas language, largely in English. Some individuals can not help however write. for instance “information” with a phrase like “information” nonetheless in use. even on the road “information” It’s even known as and written.

There are additionally conditions the place it’s inevitable to make use of overseas phrases and ideas. If the vocabulary for use is scientific and there’s no actual equal in Turkish, there isn’t any different alternative however to want the unique phrase.

In any case, what individuals say and write is their very own enterprise.

But when a public establishment, in an official correspondence, can write a textual content such because the dialog between two bureaucrats sitting at reverse tables within the workplace, if it may possibly write it, if it finds it fairly regular, it’s essential to cease and give it some thought.

“Off hours”, is it?

This public establishment is the Central Financial institution… “Republic of Turkey” The central financial institution…

He wrote a letter to the Central Financial institution Banks Affiliation, stating that he was not glad with the practices of the banks on some points. Desired banks to not flip to these purposes…

Content material is one other matter; It’s not my intention to dwell on it.

There’s a sentence within the article that was despatched:

“With banks residing overseas ‘off hours’ excessive constant foreign currency persevering with to hold out buy and sale transactions…”

“Off hours!”

Would not this expression have an equal in Turkish?

“Time outdoors the buying and selling time…” That is what is supposed.

You do not chat within the workplace!

It’s clear who signed this letter. These individuals should be advised:

“You do not sit within the workplace chatting. You’re writing a proper letter. Amongst yourselves “off hours” You can even say, you need to use different overseas phrases. However look, at first of your titles, it says that you’re an worker of the Central Financial institution of the Republic of Turkey. Keep in mind that you’re signing these on behalf of the Central Financial institution!”

#ITO #p.c #October #lets #hear #TUIK