While the dollar forecasts for 2023 come one after the other, the situation of the dollar on a global scale is among the most researched topics. 7 banks announced their dollar forecasts for 2023. Here are the predictions of the banks…
The dollar rate, which started to rise at the end of 2021, rose from 8 TL to 19 TL. While wondering where the dollar will be in 2023, 7 giant banks announced your predictions about the dollar one by one. Here are the predictions of the banks…
BANKS FORECASTS FOR 2023
While a recession is expected in the global economy, it is said that the dollar price will weaken in 2023. It is anticipated that the US Federal Reserve will end the tightening cycle with the decline in consumer and producer prices. Banks such as Wells Fargo, ING, Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale, UniCredit, Citi and Morgan Stanley underline that the dollar will weaken in 2023.
According to the news of Hilal Sarı, one of the writers of the Economy Newspaper, it was said that in the second half of 2021, the dollar prices reached the peak of 20 years. While it was stated that the rally would last longer than expected, banks announced their 2023 evaluations one by one. In this context, comments from banks are as follows:
CITI: While it is stated that the dollar will peak in 2023, it is stated that it will lose value in the second half. Morgan Stanley is among the organizations that say the dollar will fall in 2023.
CREDIT SUISSE: He underlined that the inflation, which has peaked and started to fall in many countries, cannot approach the targets of centers in developed economies in 2023. It has been said that inflation in the USA, England and the Euro Zone will not regress to their central targets. For this reason, the bank stated that none of the developed countries will decide to cut interest rates in 2023. It was said that the recession concerns in 2023 will be supported by the USA and the FED. While it is said that the dollar will reach the highest levels since 1985, it is said that it is expected to weaken by peaking in the second half of 2023. It is thought that the US will experience an economic recovery with the FED giving the others that the tightening will end. It was stated that if the strengthening of the dollar continues, it will cause capital outflows in the emerging markets. In addition, it was stated that in the new world, the dollar may be adversely affected by the new systems.
DEUTSCHE BANK: It has been stated that the Fed’s interest rate cycle will peak in the spring of 2023. While it was said that the European Central Bank would continue to increase interest rates, it was underlined that the dollar was nearing the end. While it was stated that the weakening dollar would add movement to the asset market, it was said that the activity may increase in the Euro zone and China during the winter months. In this context, it was stated that the pair will close at 1.05 in 2023.
HSBC: The bank emphasized that they do not expect interest rate differentials to widen further in the economies, even though the peak in interest rates is approaching. While it was stated that there may be interest rate differences in some economies, it was emphasized that the support for the dollar might decrease. It was underlined that if the US economy is resistant and the risk appetite is mixed, the resistance will continue.
SOCIETE GENERALE: Expressing that the US economy has been stronger in Europe since 2008, the bank underlined that the dollar has strengthened. While it is said that the growth in the money market depends on monetary policies and other factors, it was stated that the recession that will be seen in 2023 will undermine the dollar price. In this context, it was emphasized that if the bank Santa Claus brings peace to the world, the decrease in the dollar will be greater. The Fed is likely to make its U-turn before the ECB, which is positive for the euro and the beginning of the end of the dollar rally.
ING: Stating that the decrease in inflation seen in October was also effective in the US housing sector, the bank said that confidence in the economy decreased. It was stated that this situation strengthened the interest rate cut expectations in the second half of the year. ING said, “Even if the Fed starts to cut interest rates in the second half, we do not anticipate that Europe and Asia will provide an investment environment that will bring a stable outflow from dollar deposits. For this reason, we are of the opinion that there will not be an increase above 1.05 levels in euro/dollar.” expressed in his words.
JP MORGAN: The bank said that the scenario they have determined indicates a moderate recession in the markets and a decrease in inflation. Stating that the dollar will continue to find support from the scenario in 2023, Morgan emphasized that he plans to stop the Fed’s interest rates after raising them by around 5%. Stating that the risks are in a downside and pessimistic scenario, Morgan said that the central inflation expectations may be shaken and tightened more. In this context, it was said that the safe harbor attraction of the dollar will increase.