”Inflation will increase, growth will decrease”

Friday, September 30, 2022

The Central Bank conducts a monthly economic orientation survey in 1744 workplaces operating in the manufacturing industry. With this survey, changes in production volume, sales and exports, unit costs and expectations in the manufacturing industry are included.

Survey results, in the last three months compared to the same months of the previous year;

* Decrease in production volume, order quantity, export quantity, and increase in average unit costs and sales prices.

* The same trend is expected to continue in the next three months.

(Graph Below)


Source: Central Bank

Expectations also determine future economic stability. The translation of these survey results is already; ”Inflation will rise, growth will fall” form.

On the other hand, in TURKSTAT; It released its September consumer confidence index. Consumer confidence index “Evaluation of the current situation and future expectations of consumers regarding their personal financial situation and general economy, and determination of their tendencies regarding their expenditures and savings” are leading indicators.

Consumer Confidence Index for September this year, compared to the same month of the previous year;

* The consumer also shows a loss of confidence.

* The financial situation of the consumer has deteriorated;

* The general economic situation deteriorated;

* He says that the economic situation will deteriorate further.


The summary of the consumer confidence index is; ”My financial situation has deteriorated. Economic stability has deteriorated. The deterioration will continue.” is in the form.

TurkStat says that these indicators are leading indicators. Central Bank and TurkStat are public institutions. The surveys they conduct form the basis for the policies to be implemented. However, the surveys of these institutions say that the economic stability will deteriorate, but the government does not listen to them and says that the world is also experiencing stability problems.

* In reality, while the world average inflation rate is between 8 and 9 percent, it is eighty percent in our country. Despite this, the whole world (with the exception of Russia) wants to reduce inflation by raising interest rates and reducing the money supply. On the contrary, we reduce interest rates, increase populist expenditures from the budget and also through TOKİ.

* Producer and consumer say that inflation will increase and growth will decrease, but the government does not make an economic stability program.

* Why is the government doing these surveys if they are not going to use it as a leading indicator? Money comes out of the budget.

While the producer and consumer say there are problems, the only target of the government still giving weight to populist policies is the elections. However, these populist policies of the government are deepening the crisis. At that time he is losing votes. Isn’t this a contradiction?

At that time, this trend shows that the AKP did not intend to relinquish power at any cost. It’s up to the Nation Alliance. This alliance should leave me and focus on us.