It wants to re-establish the game in Syria with the tactics of reflecting responsibility without facing any crime. It is going to a change where it can cover up its crimes, earn rent from the destruction it causes, and maneuver politically. It doesn’t look like a real “U” turn, either. Not confrontation; the ability to rise to the top of political bravado.
On his return to Ukraine, he said, “We do not have a problem with defeating Assad or not.” It is impossible to format every mortal’s brain. What was said in 11 years was neither written on the water nor on the beach, they are all recorded, they are all in the memories. All the damn consequences of Syrian politics are out there, all on the ground.
Wasn’t he the most enthusiastic local ally of American interventionism when he started his political run? How proudly he was emphasizing that he was the Co-Chair of the Greater Middle East Project.
In 2011, when the demonstrators were armed, the jihadists were put on the field, when the regime purge game was turned into a global campaign through the “Friends of Syria Group”, that is, when the dirty plot was set up, none of the troubles, organizations and formations on the Syrian scene existed today. Whether they are identified as allies or enemies… The intervention was not due to existing problems; consequences of intervention today’s problems.
In 2016, when he said, “We entered there to end the rule of the cruel Assad, who spread state terror,” he was whole with his words and practices. It was a confession that his followers were also proud of. If we go back a bit; While giving the appearance of brotherhood with Assad in parallel with Washington’s normalization process with Damascus, the main issue was to shift Syria’s axis through Turkey. He had taken on a job in line with American expectations, the motto was “Zero problems with neighbors”.
The axis of Damascus could not be changed with friendship and the 2011 rebellion was a rare opportunity for a dirty intervention. Worst of all, the loom was set up on Turkey’s borders. Didn’t the Free Officers Operation, the Free Syrian Army, the Syrian National Council and the transitional government come out of this plot? Didn’t the highway on which the jihadists were put on the field passed through Turkey?
Aren’t the weapons that the CIA collected from Libya and former Eastern European countries and paid the Saudi-Qatar duo to Mersin Port, Atatürk Airport and Esenboğa Airport? Didn’t the trucks carrying the guns get caught?
Weren’t those who killed 123 Syrian soldiers and police in Jisr al-Shughur, right next to the Turkish border, and ignited the lie of revolution, the product of this plot?
What was the open door policy that encouraged refugees to increase the pressure on Assad? Wasn’t the number of 100 thousand refugees determined as a psychological threshold to be able to say “Go now” to Assad? Yes, when millions broke that threshold, the responsibility of this government was multiplied millions of times.
They knew very well what valuable technology was in which facility when they plundered the organized industrial sites that they laid the foundations of together with Assad in Aleppo. The dirty process was overflowing with crimes against humanity. Time turns, these crimes turn into standing shackles.
If there was a wheel in Syria at different turns, wasn’t the compelling factor here that crimes against a neighboring country were filed in different intelligence services? First of all, didn’t Russia bend her wrists with these files? I have written three books, thousands of articles and hundreds of programs about them. And I’m tired!
TO BREAK THE GAME WITH SYRIA?
It is clear that policy change will not come at a cost. A new page requires a fundamental and sincere change, otherwise the channels that carry all the troubles into Turkey will open even more.
Erdogan complains that the work they carried out with Russia to tie the change process in one place did not find a response on the Iranian side. According to Erdogan, everyone, especially the USA and Iran, is in the game. Except himself. “We need to secure further steps with Syria. By taking these steps, we will disrupt many games in the whole region,” he says.
It was the calculations of Erdogan and his associates that were spoiled, thanks to Russia and Iran’s support for Syria. While talking about the game, he targets the USA, which supports the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). But it continues to serve the US policy targeting Syria in the west of the Euphrates. The thing that best describes the Turkish-American conflict west of the Euphrates is that the US never touched Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) while targeting ISIS and al-Qaeda leaders. HTS goes off the radar with the assurance “I’m only fighting against Assad”. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al Colani is playing “Talibanism” with the inspection of tradesmen. The US finds the Turkish military presence in the west of the Euphrates and armed groups, including jihadists, useful to wear down the Syrian administration.
Of course, in addition to this service, Erdogan also continues his own game of Ottomanism; by recruiting militias, establishing the “Syrian National Army” with them, Turkifying Syria’s institutional assets, putting TL into circulation, establishing transitional governments, making the Turkish army a shield to these organizations, etc.
The problem between them was that the USA went to war against ISIS not with the FSA, but with the YPG. Erdogan was upset by the clearing of ISIS from the field before Assad. Previously, the Syrian establishment of ISIS resented the declaration of the Nusra Front as a terrorist organization. Otherwise, they did little to attract the USA to the field. The White Helmets, the product of British intelligence, and the chemical attack plots of Islamist organizations were also part of these provocations. When Erdogan changes his policy, the biggest game will definitely be spoiled by itself.
DOES CLEANING THE DIRTY PAGE EXPLAIN THE AKP?
Since the time is turning, it is essential for Erdogan to clean up the dirty pages. Numan Kurtulmuş, who is a watchdog for the AKP, says beautifully: “It is extremely wrong to present the issue as if it were an issue between Turkey and the Syrian regime.” If the policy changes and a new page is opened, this will turn into a new satisfaction; In this way, dozens of criminal files including MIT trucks, illegal arms shipments, seized sarin gas, support of dozens of jihadist groups including al-Qaeda elements, involvement with ISIS, looting of industrial facilities, looting of all the riches of Afrin, and sectarian massacres are incalculable. will be closed! They think so. Of course, it would be right for Syrian politics to change while the AKP is in power. They also face the possible negative reflections of this, and the opposition does not pay the entire bill.
THINGS TO ASK…
Statements about change evoke positive repercussions. Still, it must be asked: Is policy really changing? If so, to what extent does it change? Can peace with Damascus be bought with a partial exchange?
The conditions set before the reconciliation are already the causes of the war. I mentioned this in my last two posts. It will be a little repetitive:
– Damascus requires Turkey to withdraw its troops and end its support to armed organizations. Erdogan’s words “We have no eyes on Syria’s lands. The regime must be aware of this” has no answer. The Turkish military presence in the field acts as if it had annexed Syrian lands. One word to describe what the Syrians realize; “occupation”.
– Ankara, on the other hand, wants to make Syria a partner in the war against the Kurdish-led autonomy project in order to compromise. Although the Syrian administration is angry with the Kurds for their partnership with the US and their control of oil and grain wealth, it does not look at them as it does to Turkey-backed organizations. The armed uprising against the state and the Islamist-jihadist agenda are the red line. They may even consider reconciliation with the Kurds as a response to Erdogan’s misdeeds in Syria. A partnership that pushes the Kurds under the truck will magnify the problem on both sides of the border and transfer it to the future. This means making the war with the Kurds eternal.
Secondly, Erdogan insists on making the organizations that Damascus calls terrorists partners in the political solution. What will be the solution with those who see reconciliation with Assad as ‘apostasy’? Even those who participated in the Astana and Geneva processes took this road so that foreign support would not be cut off. Nobody is friendly. Even the Syrian Islamic Council, which Turkey supports as “moderate”, made a statement strongly refusing to compromise with the regime.
How will organizations that promise Syria a dark future be part of the solution? The truth of the matter is that the Syrian administration does not want to carry them to Damascus, but to shovel them to Turkey. In a way, he says, “These are your problems.” In fact, after Erdogan became partners with Russia and Iran in Astana, he moved the jihadists from Hama, Homs, eastern Aleppo, Eastern Ghouta, the Damascus countryside and Quneitra to the borders of Turkey and said, “Yes, they belong to us.” Armed dissidents who went the way of reconciliation remained in their own cities. The radicals who insisted on the war were settled on the borders of Turkey. This was the greatest evil done to Turkey’s future. When Idlib and other pockets are closed, the only place where the jihadist balance will be withdrawn is Turkey. Is there any preparation for this scenario in Erdogan’s roadmap? I do not think so. See the fate of ISIS members fleeing Iraq and Syria. They settled in the cities of Turkey; they run their business in “sleep mode”. It was as if they were told, “Don’t target us, and we won’t touch you.” But they will not sit quietly. The tonal differences of ISIS will come with the same logic. They, too, will continue to ferment jihadists. They will be trouble for Turkey.
– Erdogan’s third condition is to prepare the conditions for the return of refugees. The sub-title of this is getting a share from the rebuilding. In other words, Erdogan is waiting for a reward from Assad, whom he did his best to overthrow. A beauty that will be reflected in the ballot box in the elections!
Even if normalization begins, it is unrealistic to expect significant changes regarding asylum seekers until the election. The war must end first. Those who insist on war must be unplugged. Here, the big business falls to Turkey. In addition, the Western sanctions that blocked the reconstruction should be lifted or alternative partnerships should be developed to render them ineffective.
HOW WILL THE PROJECT BE SOLD TO THE WEST?
By transferring Russian funds to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Putin tied Erdoğan for a policy change. According to Tesnim News Agency’s claim, Putin plans to bring Erdogan and Assad together at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Samarkand summit on September 15-16. It is predicted that the work will be done during the visit of Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mikdad to Moscow on 23 August.
In this process, Erdogan will also have to turn to his Western partners and sell the new story. With what? Refugee blackmail or NATO card? Or will it go backwards? Or will he play a double and say, “I’m still in your game”?
After the first contacts with the reconciliation agenda, perhaps it will be clear how Erdogan will proceed. There is currently neither a map nor a compass. What is actually happening is that two dangerous deviations are developing in Syrian politics that contradict the signal for change.
On the one hand, pressure is mounting, forcing the Kurds to respond. Only 53 attacks were carried out with unmanned aerial vehicles, 57 people were killed. Cannonballs do not stop either. The USA and Russia do not act as a brake either. If the YPG-SDF retaliates against Turkish targets, a ‘justification for destruction’ would have been produced for Turkey. Which is what happens. The shootings at Turkish military points on the border in recent weeks and the SDF’s undertaking these with two statements mean that the rules of engagement on the Kurdish side have changed.
On the other hand, Turkey shows that it is insistent on the 32-kilometer-deep safe zone design by shooting the Syrian soldiers accompanying the YPG-SDF. In addition to the bombardment in Kobani on 16 August, in which three Syrian soldiers were killed, six more places where the SDF and the Syrian army were side by side were hit. In other words, with these attacks, Turkey is trying to say, “If there will be Adana Consensus II, as suggested by Russia, I will be in the 32 kilometer lane, I will protect my right to operate.” If this is what Erdogan understands by peace, this war will not end.