Has the balance of the war changed in favor of Ukraine?

Yes, in the title “me?” there is. because “changed” I think it’s too early to say. But some Western and Ukrainian sources are without this little question suffix. “The tide of war has changed” and they make the point. According to them, the process of Russia’s defeat and Ukraine’s victory has begun in recent weeks.

For weeks, the Russian armed forces could not achieve any serious success in Ukraine, they were holding back. In late August, Ukraine resumed the offensive at Kherson, one of its first casualties in the war. It was followed by moves in Kharkov (Kharkiv), the country’s second city, at the beginning of September. A number of settlements were recaptured from Russian troops.

President of Ukraine on September 12 Zelenskyannounced that they regained control of an area of ​​6 thousand square kilometers in the east and south of the country. The recapture of Balakleya, Kupyansk, Izyum and other cities, towns and villages boosted the morale of the Ukrainian troops.

Of course, this success cannot be explained only with the help of the West’s weapons. The Ukrainian army has been holding up a successful resistance for months.

Zelenski, who has increased his prestige both at home and abroad since the beginning of the war, “It is out of the question to sit at the table for peace talks with Russia” says. In Moscow backstage “a temporary ceasefire would be beneficial”In this way, both the army will breathe and the referendums will be held in the captured cities and they will be officially recognized. “Russian land” The opinion that it can be declared is effective.

US Secretary of State Blinken‘of, “Ukraine’s contract with Russia is just beginning” Judging by what he said, Washington is confident that Russian forces have weakened further and will continue to withdraw.

Moscow “We will take Kiev in three days” How far has it come from your approach? According to rumors, the Minister of Defense in the ruling circles Shoigu Losing quite a few points, the head of the National Guard Zolotov and the Chechen leader Kadyrov stands out. Again, according to rumors, Putin calls the commanders on the war front directly and gives instructions without looking at the hierarchy. A common view is that one of Russia’s main problems in Ukraine is the lack of troops. As a way to remedy this, troops are said to have been sent to Ukraine from Russian bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

The war may continue for longer and many regions may change hands many times.

It is obvious that the situation of the Russian armed forces is not very good. But we do not know very well the situation of the Ukrainian army and the weapons in their hands. It is not easy to predict in advance how the energy tension with Russia will be interpreted in the cold winter conditions in Europe and how regular the West’s weapons aid to Ukraine will be.

The clearest assessment for today may be this: Things are not going well for the Kremlin administration. If Ukraine and the West can spend the following few months without serious losses, the economic consequences of the sanctions in Russia will begin to be felt seriously, and the contradictions between different circles that are effective in the administration of the country may gradually come to the surface.

The news and claims from Armenia and Azerbaijan are different. If what they say is true, around 150 Armenians and Azeris died in the clashes that started on the night of 12-13 September. In other words, what is happening these days is considered the bloodiest development after the 44-day war that killed 6,500 people in 2020.

We have political statements from the capitals of both countries and the forces that support them. But we don’t know exactly what happened, who made the first attack and the aims. Let me just list a few things that come to mind first:

Baku may want to send the message that it can take its victory in 2020, the results of which are not tied to a definite agreement, to a further point. Especially with Turkey’s support and Russia in trouble in Ukraine.

The timing too “meaningful” can be found. in Brussels on 31 August Aliyev and PashinyanTwo weeks after the difficult EU-mediated meeting of . If the issue comes to the fore in Samarkand, it can be predicted that the majority of SCO members will stay closer to Baku.

* * *

Pashinyan administration, to Russia, He applied to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the UN Security Council and demanded that measures be taken. It has been reported that the CSTO will send a mission to the region to assess the situation in Armenia on the spot.

Some circles in Russia argue that the USA wants to cause confusion in the region and aims to wear off the Kremlin’s position there. PapikyanHe points out that ‘ has recently returned from Washington. Meanwhile, the US Secretary of State Blinkenexpressed that they would be pleased if Russia eased the tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Russian journalist and politician Shevchenko On the other hand, the Armenian lobbies in the USA and France, and those who have recently left Russia and settled in Armenia. Vardanyan He argued that some wealthy Armenians, such as Armenians, were after provocation to confuse the region and strengthen the West in the Caucasus. Shevchenko claimed that another aim of the Americans and the French was to disrupt good relations between Russia and Turkey.

* * *

Former Russian deputy and researcher, who said that if Russia intervenes in the crisis by following Pashinyan’s call, Turkey will also side with Azerbaijan. Markov On the other hand, he claimed that in this case, the Russian-Turkish cooperation, which is vital under the Ukraine war and sanctions, would be interrupted. Moscow and He expressed the thesis that the CSTO’s failure to help Yerevan could bring this country closer to the West.

On the other hand, in these tense days, the crowd protests in Yerevan demanding Pashinyan’s resignation continue. However, it is not clear who will replace Pashinyan with his resignation and what problem this will solve.