President Erdogan’s Balkan tour to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Croatia was a critical trip at a critical time.
Gezi contains many targets for both the domestic and international public opinion in Turkey.
The foreign policy objective of the trip is to strengthen Erdoğan’s personal position in the international arena;
Ukraine-Russia Agriculture The role it played in the agreement on imports of products had strengthened Ankara’s position in the eyes of both the West and Russia, and provided the legitimacy of its foreign policy on the Ukraine war. However, the effect did not last long.
Nowadays, there is a serious increase in pressure, especially from the West, to participate in the Russian sanctions against Ankara. Therefore, the AK Party government began to need a new initiative to strengthen its position in the international arena. The Balkan tour should be read from this perspective.
WAS IT SUCCESSFUL?
During the Bosnia-Herzegovina leg of his Balkan tour, Erdoğan tried to be involved in many conflicts between the Serb, Croat and Bosniak leaderships in the country.
With the Dayton Agreement signed in 1995 after the Bosnian War, the state administration of Bosnia and Herzegovina was established according to the quota system based on ethnic and religious grounds, just like Lebanon or Iraq. A Serb republic and a Croat-Bosniak republic were created under the roof of Bosnia-Herzegovina. The roof management of the country was left to the Presidential Council, which was composed of politicians from three backgrounds.
However, this ethno-religious quota system in the government, not facilitating the administration of the country, has started to move Bosnia and Herzegovina towards partition again these days.
There are currently two different tensions in Bosnia;
- Bosnian Serb Leader Dodik’s quest for independence;
During Erdogan’s visit, the Serbian, Croat and Bosniak representatives of the Presidential Council of Bosnia and Herzegovina were seated around the same table with Erdogan. However, even in the seating arrangement, it proved that the disagreements remained in place; According to the Bosnia and Herzegovina protocol, the visiting foreign leader was supposed to sit on one side and the three members of the Presidential Council on the other side, in line with the rotating presidency. Bosnian Serb leader Dodik, on the other hand, preferred to sit at the table not on the same side as the Bosniak and Croatian Presidency council members of Bosnia, but on the other side of Erdoğan. Obviously, Erdogan failed to reduce the tension in this area.
- the tension regarding the balance in the Croat-Bosniak republic in Bosnia;
Things are also complicated in the Bosnian-Croat republic under the umbrella of Bosnia-Herzegovina; The Croats are chasing more than the administration/bureaucracy quota given to them in Dayton. The rumors that High Representative Christian Schmidt, who is the “protector” of the Dayton agreement, will increase the representation of the Croats by changing the election law in the country, has also increased the tension.
Erdogan tried to mediate on this issue as well. However, not only the Bosnian authorities, but also Croatia, in a diplomatic language, conveyed the message to Ankara “not to attempt this task”. On the Croatian leg of the tour, Croatian President Milanovic said that he and Erdogan “did in opinion” regarding Bosnia and Herzegovina. “We have some reservations about the implementation of the Dayton agreement”.
A “DO NOT MEET” MESSAGE FROM KOSOVO
- Kosovo-Serbia tension;
Erdogan focused on the tension between Serbia and Kosovo. Just a few weeks ago, there was a serious tension between Serbia and Kosovo, which it does not recognize, due to the border and license plates, and this crisis could be suspended before it escalated with the intervention of international actors. Although the crisis between the two sides has been prevented from turning into an armed conflict, the tension still remains in place.
However, Ankara’s effort to “step in” on this issue seems to have been stopped by the Kosovo administration for now. Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti said that the mediation on the issue with Serbia is being carried out by the European Union, and this process is also supported by the United States. Of course, Kurti’s words are nothing more than a polite “don’t get involved” message to Erdogan.
CAN IT BE USED IN 2023 ELECTION PROPAGANDA?
In the leg of the Balkan tour on Turkish domestic politics, there is the target of election propaganda that the AK Party will use in the 2023 elections;
Due to the economic crisis, the “U-turns” of the AK Party government in its policies towards Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and finally Syria, have created discontent even among its own voters.
In order to cover up this situation, the AK Party seems to have made an effort to create a “world leader” cult around Erdoğan. The Ukrainian grain agreement was an important step in this perception. With the mediation in the Balkan tour, it was aimed to strengthen this.
However, both the turmoil in the Balkan system and the great economic and political influence of the European Union in the region – for now – seem to have failed Ankara’s mediation efforts.
The last note on Erdogan’s Balkan trip is for a symbolic gesture;
On the Croatian leg of the visit, an “Islamic Center” named after Erdoğan was opened in Sisak city. The city of Sisak is important in Ottoman history as it is the place where the 1593 Kulpa Defeat took place. The Kulpa Defeat is known in history as the war that stopped the Ottoman advance into Eastern Europe by the Croatian army. Now, what does the establishment of an “Islamic Center” in the same place, and even if it is named after Erdoğan, mean?
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