The new program implemented in the economy did not and does not give the result expected by the government.
Inflation was based on 70 percent according to official figures.
The dollar rate exceeded the 18 TL band.
Due to energy prices, the current account deficit does not close either.
In such an atmosphere, the AK Party cannot say to the electorate that “good days are near” in order to win re-election.
Therefore, in the next election, they will focus on telling the past rather than the future.
Based on the capital of 20 years of actions, they will ask the AK Party base to show patience and loyalty.
In fact, the President said to the party staff at MKYK, “Tell us about the centuries-old works and services we have brought to our country for 20 years”.
They had a surprise meeting at the headquarters yesterday.
They talked about the answers to the opposition’s criticisms.
So, can explaining the services rendered in the past win the AK Party re-election?
Erdogan has a serious constituency loyal to him. For this reason, the vote does not go below 30 percent.
But there is also a strong desire for change in society.
Especially young people find AK Party politics boring and old. There is no concept of ‘Old Turkey’ in their memory.
Moreover, their numbers are so high that they can change the fate of the election.
Tayyip Erdoğan is a politician who has built his 20-year policy on mobilizing the masses and showing common goals and common enemies for this.
In its first years, it achieved this mobilization through democratization, increasing the welfare level and the hostility of the CHP mentality.
As of 2016, it consolidated its base with nationalist conservatism, foreign powers, national survival and major investment projects.
It promised a better Turkey with its 2023 targets.
The dynamics of the upcoming elections are very different from the previous ones.
The economy is worse than it has ever been during this ruling period.
Many of the 2023 targets were not achieved.
The discourse of national survival does not have the old effect due to the change in foreign policy dynamics.
It is also difficult for them to gain votes over the secular-conservative split, as 3 conservative parties join the opposition ranks.
But his hands are not completely empty.
The AK Party’s strongest trump card in the 2023 campaign is Erdogan’s diplomatic achievements…
The government, which has made peace with Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf countries and perhaps Syria, and mediates between Russia and Ukraine, will want to use the prestige it has gained from these places inside.
However, this issue also attracts the attention of the older generation more.
It is difficult for them to win elections by memorizing the past, without giving hope for the future and convincing the new generations.
Ekrem İmamoğlu’s campaign director, Necati Özkan, wrote an article full of warnings to opposition parties the previous day.
In summary, Özkan makes three critical observations.
“There is still no opposition party that will clearly shake the balance of power by gaining the support of the electorate that has broken away from power.
The joint solution proposals of the opposition parties are still not clear. It is unclear whether Table of Six will even have a common candidate.
Opposition parties now have to complete the details and move on to the nomination of candidates quickly. Because if there is no candidate, there is no campaign. Any further delay by the opposition would benefit the power components. If the campaign can be started as soon as possible, there will be time to investigate the impact of the promises, correct the mistakes, improve the candidate’s performance and mobilize the voters.”
Although some claim that Özkan wanted to highlight İmamoğlu’s candidacy with this article, I do not think that he had such a secret intention.
On the contrary, it is a very clear and accurate article.
6 parties are wasting their time by meeting and discussing theoretical and bureaucratic issues.
They met 6 times, but they could not come up with a single concrete program that would change the agenda of the masses.
They shared the texts of the ‘Basic Principles and Objectives’, ‘Election Security’ and ‘Reform of Certain Economic Institutions’ commissions with the public, but they could not effectively communicate any of them. They failed to attract the attention of the citizens on the street.
While focusing on these, they prefer to leave the candidate issue to the end.
However, the election is won not by common principles, but by a strong candidate.
If they announce that candidate a few months before the election, they will not have time to make an effective campaign, explain the projects, or make up for possible road accidents.
So, can they try something new in Turkish politics and make an alliance-centered rather than candidate-centered campaign?
Is it possible to have a political ground where the candidate is subordinate?
This strategy is unlikely to work when you have a strong opponent like Erdogan.
Moreover, they may be working in harmony within themselves, but they cannot create a wave of excitement outwardly.
They cannot draw the undecided voters, who voted for the People’s Alliance in the past, to the ranks of the opposition.
And they are extremely passive in the face of developments in foreign policy.
Meanwhile, the power wing is not sitting idle. It is trying to close the gap opened by investments from Russia, salary hikes, social benefits, one-on-one press with the citizens in the field and foreign policy attacks, and try to turn the resentful voters back.
Before the 7th meeting, the opposition has a 45-day time frame. If they can’t tidy up this mess when they regroup, it’s going to be very difficult when the chest is brought out.