In the inflationary environment, which started with interest rate cuts last year and reached the peak of 24 years after the sharp depreciation of the TL, the stock market has become an alternative place for investors to protect their savings.
While the company shares, which became very cheap with the sales in the index parallel to the collapse in the TL after the new economy model and the sales of the foreign investors, also created a buying opportunity, the bank shares, which became attractive with profits exceeding 400 percent, have risen continuously since mid-July.
The share of foreign investors in Borsa Istanbul, which was 63 percent at the beginning of 2020, decreased almost continuously after this date and fell below 33 percent in July. The share of foreign investors stopped its decline in mid-August and moved to a limited plus, exceeding 35 percent as of August 25.
Borsa İstanbul rose by 53.7 percent and 46.85 percent in dollar terms from July 14 to the closing peak on September 12, while the banking index rose 151.2 percent in TL and 140 percent in dollars in the same period.
However, the rise is not only due to apparent reasons and “a hysterical rise” Analysts state that the increase in the banking index is also due to the highly leveraged positions taken in the futures market.
Oliver Adcock, emerging markets fund manager at Nedgroup Investments, said investors are trading in futures markets where more leverage is allowed to hedge the risk of higher inflation. “(This move) is probably the harbinger of a fix” said.
HIGH LEVERAGE TRANSACTIONS ON VIOP
While the stocks fell sharply after peaking on September 12, analysts stated that these sales continued to increase due to the collateral fulfillment obligation.
Bank shares, which have been going up for a while due to the highly leveraged positions taken in the futures market, are selling hard due to the obligation to complete collateral in any decline.
Bank shares have dropped more than 24 percent since September 12, while the index fell more than 5 percent today.
“One of the most important rules of the markets is that hard rises have sharp reversals” Soner Kuru, Deputy General Manager of Marbaş Investment, stated that the sales wave triggered by the US inflation figures continued under the leadership of banks in Borsa Istanbul, which has been positively differentiated from abroad for a while. “We expect the volatility in the market to continue during the liquidation phase of these positions in the next few days… We continue to evaluate the pullbacks as buying opportunities” said.
Noting that there are developments that support the rise in the banking index and the stock market, but there is no development that supports the extreme ups and downs, Ata Yatırım Deputy General Manager for Research Cemal Demirtaş also stated that there are inflows to the stock market in an inflationary environment all over the world:
“Inflationary environment supports the stock market… We have elections ahead of us, there are no major movements in the exchange rate, there are balanced developments in foreign policy. I mean, I can’t say that the long-standing rise in the stock market is unfounded. However, its extreme ups and downs do not make sense.”
TVF: “NO TRANSACTION WAS MADE ON BANK SHARES”
A banking analyst who stated that some companies mainly carry out transactions in the futures markets, “However, of course, we do not know on whose behalf the company carries out transactions. However, it seems very clear that some brokerage houses are leading a transaction. said.
On the other hand, there have been recent reports in the media claiming that the Turkish Wealth Fund (TFV) is behind the rise in the banking index.
Upon Reuters’ question on the subject, TVF stated in its statement that they are working in harmony with the Santiago Principles, which they have voluntarily adopted, and that they take into account the principles of informing the public, transparency and good governance in accordance with these principles, “In this context, we share the transactions we have made with the public. No transaction has been made regarding bank shares in Borsa Istanbul.” it was said.