A very sparse population in seclusion, large areas beyond your eyes, changing conditions due to global warming… We are talking about the Arctic… This region, which we have heard of with its glaciers, igloos and touristic trips, is a candidate to become one of the most populated places in the world in the near future.
So, although we are focused on developments in the Middle East, on the Russian-Ukrainian savanna, on the rising tensions in the Pacific, the Arctic is coming from quite deep but very strongly.
The number of those who believe that the first place where the most powerful countries in the world, including the USA, Russia and the west, can directly attack each other will be the Arctic, is quite high. The number of security experts working on the region is increasing. Besides all these, it is not a secret that some countries have increased their military power in the Arctic region.
So why is the Arctic so humid? How does Ankara look at all this while the world’s center of gravity is changing? Dr. Ebru Caymaz is a professor at Ankara Onsekiz Mart University. The first Trk to participate in the “100 Women in Polar Sciences” project. Caymaz explained the expectations about the process.
EXTREMELY RICH IN NATURAL GAS AND OIL
Caymaz says that every period of discussions about oil and underground resources in the Arctic Region begins with the warning that they exist. However, it was difficult to reach the region and the lack of logistics infrastructure also increased the costs. For this reason, some plans for the region were not considered effective and efficient.
At this point, Caymaz points out that climate change has turned everything upside down… The region has become accessible for a longer period of time due to the decreasing sea ice in the area and thickness it covers.
In a geological survey report prepared by the USA in 2009, there is information that approximately 30 percent of the world’s undiscovered natural gas and 13 percent of the oil are located in this region. It is not a secret that the global energy crisis, which has deepened gradually after those years, has brought ‘resource competition’ back to the agenda.
A NEW BEGINNING OF MARINE TRADE ROADS
Dr. According to Ebru Caymaz, the Arctic Region has another very important value besides its rich underground resources. Maritime trade routes that have become more suitable for navigation… This situation makes the region very important in terms of geoeconomics.
Caymaz places a parenthesis on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. It is noteworthy that the region heats up at least 4 times faster than in other parts of the world.
We learn that maritime activities in the Arctic Ocean are basically examined under 4 categories. It is possible to rank these as transit passes, destination traffic, import/export transport, and Arctic interior cabotage.
Although there are mainly sea routes and connections, the Northwest Passage (NWP), Northeast Passage (NEP) and Trans Polar Pass (TPP), the NEP is considered to be the Arctic shipping route with the highest accessibility in terms of navigational conditions.
WHAT IS ATTACHED TO THE CALENDAR WITH THE FROSTING OF GLACIERS?
At this point, Caymaz intervenes and states that NEP also includes the Northern Sea Route (NSR), where commercial traffic is heavy, and said, “Current climate change reports suggest that the TPP sea route, which is expected to become effective and efficient only after 2050, will continue until 2035. If the meltdown continues at this rate, the time may be shortened even more. Even though the TPP gains strength, Svalbard and Greenland may return to important logistics centers. Therefore, besides the regional states, many other states outside the region try to legalize their presence in the region, especially with scientific research statements. hz. shares his knowledge.
WILL ARKTK BE A TOOL OF WAR OR BARIA?
Although some have conspiracy theories about the region in question, there are very serious war statements. The number of those who claim that this place will host the direct heat between the USA and Russia is not small. Another view is that the USA and China can risk a war for this region.
Dr. We also ask Ebru Caymaz about these… She talks about the fact that the dominant discourses against the Arctic Region can be addressed from two perspectives. The first of these perspectives argues that conflicts over the region will evolve into escalation.
“Especially after the 2000s, competition and competition for Arctic resources began to come to the fore frequently,” says Dr. Caymaz:
“At this point, Russia’s efforts to make the Northern Sea Route more attractive, in particular, were followed closely, especially in the USA, for its mega projects such as the Northern Latitude Crossing, which it launched to connect Central Asia to the Arctic Ocean, as well as to develop the hinterland in the region.
In this process, the troops made by Russia with the inland received intense criticism. We saw that Russia reopened some of the military secrets that it closed during the Cold War Period. There are many studies that examine these words, which have been modernized and reopened, in the context of ‘aggressive realism’.
On the other hand, large-scale exercises such as NATO’s Trident Juncture sometimes cause an increase in tension in the region. In addition, NATO’s acceleration of military structures towards the region, and the adequacy of Finland and Sweden, which reveal the expansionist approach, is a controversial decision.
WHAT LIES IN THE N’N ARKTK POLTA?
The USA and Russia have somehow been involved from the very beginning. What about in? We are wondering why Beijing is so interested in this region and we ask Caymaz to open a separate window for his landing.
Caymaz explains that there are opinions that Turkey, which is seen as an “ally” with Russia, is actually a “strategic partner”. A closer look at China’s Arctic Road strategy finds it striking that it has little in common with the NSR.
We understand that the infrastructure investments that Russia has made for the Arctic Region so far have fallen short of Russia’s expectations. “So it remains unclear how the in will behave in any throwing situation,” comments Dr. Ebru Caymaz.
IS A COMMON APPROACH AVAILABLE IN THE REGION?
Although on one side of the coin there is a level of tension that could go to war, on the other side, the possibility of disagreements on the table is quite strong. According to the other perspective, which is based on international law, it is possible for the stability in the region to continue with the common effort of all parties.
Although the statements about the region are shaped around ‘security’, Caymaz is of the opinion that international scientific cooperation based on climate change is also tribal. “Therefore, it is possible to say that the second perspective, which emphasizes peace and stability, is still dominant,” he says.
DOES TRKYE HAVE ARKTK POLICY?
After watching a general framework about the Arctic, we wonder how Ankara looks at all these events… Contrary to the general view, Turkey’s interest in the Arctic Region, which has accelerated polar research in recent years, dates back to the Ottoman Empire. sylyor Ebru Caymaz.
We learn that the interest towards the poles continued even after the Turkish Republic was founded, and that our country actively participated in all polar years since the 2nd International Polar Year, which was held between 1932-1933.
“Today, there is the motivation to both carry out scientific research for the Arctic Region and to take advantage of the emerging economic opportunities,” says Caymaz and concludes his words:
“In the context of scientific research, the Polar Research Institute, which was established within the TBTAK, completed the 2nd Arctic Science Expedition this year. Concrete steps need to be taken so that we can integrate into the structures for the region, including the Western Arctic Council. Being a party to the Svalbard Treaty is the most concrete step for which the declaration was made It will provide great achievements, especially in the context of scientific research.
In terms of economic opportunities, Turkish companies have already started to take part in tenders in the region. Turkish companies continued to take part in infrastructure projects of Russia, mainly in the Yamal Region, during the sanctions imposed on Russia due to the incompatibility on the ship with respect to the Crimea and Georgia.
Parallel to these developments, Turkish shipyards started to win an increasing number of Arctic tenders. Therefore, Turkish companies have significant experience in the region and incentives need to be increased under the guidance of an effective strategy in this regard.
Russia’s occupation of Ukraine also affected the Arctic Region, which had its share of more than 5 thousand sanctions, very negatively. Russia is the largest polar state and has a significant population in the Arctic Region, including Turkish-origin ethnonyms. The Arctic Council’s suspension of its initial activities and then the decision to continue its activities by excluding Russia adversely affected the people of the region, including western development projects.
At this point, Turkey, with an effective science diplomacy strategy, can mediate the re-operation of closed communication channels, at least keeping the peoples of the Arctic Region out of their sanctions. A few days ago, the USA published a decision to appoint a flag that will take place across the region.
The appointment of an embassy within our Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the establishment of a working group for the Arctic Region can greatly contribute to the more effective conduct of our relations in this process.”