The sharp rise in bank shares, which has attracted attention in the stock market since the beginning of August, becomes clear. It is understood from the foreign transactions, foreign custody ratio and capital movements announced by BIST in August that the bank shares were bought primarily by foreigners.
➔However When these purchases took three weeks and created a serious price movement, the locals stepped in. Foreigners, on the other hand, went on sale this time. Net purchases by foreigners, which lasted for three weeks, turned into net sales for the last two weeks.
➔Foreign purchases in the first three weeks of August amounted to a net $724 million. In the fourth week ending August 26, they made $32 million in net sales.
➔The share of foreigners fell to 32.71 percent on August 3, returning to what it was before 1997. Turkish capital markets were already released to foreign investors in 1989.
➔ After rising to 35.11 percent on August 25, foreign shares fell to 33.67 percent as of September 7.
FOREIGNERS ALSO HIT MAN, BUYER
➔According to the statement of BIST Foreigners made a net purchase of 694 million dollars in August. 274 million dollars of this amount, which constitutes 40 percent, consisted of bank shares.
➔Briefly Recently, 274 million dollars of net purchase was enough to blow up the stock market.
➔In the past, the joint action of several big players created big waves in the stock market. Now the situation is different, but there is no similarity. It just seems like the amount has increased a bit.
➔These purchases can be real foreigners as it is officially seen, or a domestic mustache investor wearing a foreign mask.
➔However It is remarkable that it is a short-term investment rather than a domestic or foreign identity.
➔The investment period of foreigners in the Turkish market has already shortened.
➔While the average investment period of foreigners in banks decreased to 74 days in 2020, it was 47 days in 2021. The term for locals to invest in banks is 18 days in 2020 and 27 days in 2021.
➔For the entire stock market between 2012-2018 The average investment maturity of foreigners in 6 years was 276 days or 9.2 months. There is a maturity of 1.5 months from here, and winds are blowing in the place of the old institutional foreign investors of the stock market.
➔Remaining or newly arriving foreign investors may describe it as very short-term, hit-and-run. As a result, while the average maturity of foreign investors decreased to 45 days in 2021, it was 27 days for domestic investors.
THE PRICE OF TRACKING A FOREIGN IS HEAVY
➔The lesson to be learned from here is that it has become very risky to watch foreigners, as it was in the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s. For locals, chasing foreigners is now expensive.
➔Because it doesn’t make much difference whether the foreigner does the transactions appearing on behalf of the foreigner, whether the local mustache wearing a mask, or whether the foreigner actually does it. They are also players and short-term traders like the locals.
➔The fact that the credit rating fell 4-5 steps below the investment grade level and foreign portfolio investments began to be despised had a large share in this.
➔Foreigners in the stock market made net sales of 10 billion dollars in the period starting from the second half of 2018 until July. when i write this Minister Nureddin Nabati announced that foreigners were buying. It was true.
➔However, these purchases were limited to only three weeks of August and the size was 724 million dollars. Like this The 4-year net outflow decreased from 10 billion dollars to 9.3 billion dollars in total.
215 PERCENT PREMIUM IN ONE YEAR
With the net purchases in August, the net sales series of foreigners that started in December last year and lasted for 8 months and reached 4 billion 156 million dollars came to an end.
➔ 5 of the 10 stocks that foreigners bought the most on the net in August are bank stocks. ➔There is no bank in the 10 stocks they sell the most.
➔As of the following month-ends, foreign shares are the highest among BIST 30 stocks. Akbankin, Tüpraşin, Turkish Airlinesin and Tofasincreased in .
➔With the purchase from foreigners and then the locals coming to the bank shares, the stock market made the monthly premium that it could not do for a long time in August and rose 25 percent. The stock market made a higher premium than this rate, with 29 percent in December 2003.
➔With the bank move The sharp rise of the stock market increased to 141 percent in the last year.
With this premium in August, the stock market gained the feature of the investment tool that provides the highest return.
➔Banks, on the other hand, made a premium of 215 percent in the last year. Since the beginning of August, the increase in the bank index has reached 95 percent.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE BANK PROFITS?
Meanwhile, the obligation for banks to hold bonds according to the interest rate to be applied to loans started a new buying wave in this market. Interest rates declined by close to 5 points. This brings along the increase in the profits of the banks in the current quarter.
➔Already As of 7 months of the year, banks increased their profits by 505 percent from 40.2 billion liras to 207.8 billion liras in the last year.
➔Although banks will write strong profits from their bond portfolios due to the sharp fall in interest rates, there is a high risk that these profits will decrease if interest rates rise in the next balance sheet periods.
➔Therefore, it is a short-term approach to turn to bank stocks with the expectations of a profit explosion.
➔Besides, profits cannot be freely distributed by banks like companies, but only to the extent permitted by the BRSA. After the 2008 global crisis, the profit distribution of banks has been significantly restricted.